Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20890 3188 1932 392 59 0 0
OW 60 53 151 663 578 97 2 0
VODI 0 26 78 546 1001 381 24 0
ODI 0 16 51 346 820 493 92 0
CDI 0 17 93 520 1310 2515 530 3
VCDI 0 0 8 572 2034 8729 34421 44261
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60926 19255 4084 1913 546 85 0 0
OW 60 56 212 644 624 176 23 0
VODI 0 73 57 618 947 319 35 0
ODI 0 40 81 394 758 377 66 0
CDI 0 33 198 545 1558 2664 485 0
VCDI 0 6 117 801 2142 9699 33325 43106
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56614 22403 5566 2220 499 36 0 0
OW 56 49 210 1044 461 63 0 0
VODI 0 30 116 941 1048 116 18 0
ODI 0 14 148 505 1470 361 81 0
CDI 0 0 80 777 2040 3400 438 23
VCDI 0 0 42 422 1499 11031 32604 40623
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56493 22356 5413 3079 459 51 0 0
OW 54 82 203 945 578 85 0 0
VODI 0 28 198 808 997 205 48 0
ODI 0 23 139 434 1051 377 136 0
CDI 0 4 175 874 1970 3048 618 0
VCDI 0 0 45 492 2080 11403 33965 38132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56493 22386 5454 3230 582 60 0 0
OW 54 51 184 821 619 89 4 0
VODI 0 30 198 768 931 216 45 0
ODI 0 23 132 422 939 407 111 0
CDI 0 3 168 845 1957 2973 692 1
VCDI 0 0 37 546 2107 11424 33915 38131

Date: 2017-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57973 20033 6211 3263 675 20 0 0
OW 54 87 195 867 685 113 11 0
VODI 0 64 222 705 985 293 41 0
ODI 0 33 158 519 867 395 102 0
CDI 0 14 247 993 2063 2575 1118 0
VCDI 0 0 8 600 2520 12637 35809 33893
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57974 20047 6239 3369 827 40 1 0
OW 53 81 171 792 672 121 10 0
VODI 0 60 247 677 934 284 39 0
ODI 0 31 141 481 814 424 91 0
CDI 0 12 215 989 1996 2538 1028 1
VCDI 0 0 28 639 2552 12626 35912 33892

Date: 2017-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59055 22692 4316 2540 409 17 0 0
OW 52 155 317 1163 381 43 0 0
VODI 0 29 121 1018 980 91 9 0
ODI 0 3 115 510 1846 363 54 0
CDI 0 0 85 784 2808 4578 509 0
VCDI 0 0 8 133 1069 11390 37825 31580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59055 22586 3954 2522 846 70 5 0
OW 52 141 228 788 542 139 26 0
VODI 0 93 274 615 868 237 95 0
ODI 0 33 153 529 848 348 54 0
CDI 0 26 258 1062 2113 2969 716 20
VCDI 0 0 95 632 2276 12719 37501 31560

Date: 2017-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57605 23791 5492 2510 374 27 0 0
OW 51 61 236 1006 490 43 6 0
VODI 0 26 126 871 1047 142 28 0
ODI 0 1 71 669 1448 401 90 0
CDI 0 0 115 977 3043 4153 820 24
VCDI 0 0 56 356 1628 11055 37714 30495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57604 23634 4980 2334 771 137 32 0
OW 52 111 241 729 569 120 46 0
VODI 0 93 334 643 715 182 92 0
ODI 0 40 208 579 963 346 69 15
CDI 0 1 227 1324 2421 3189 957 44
VCDI 0 0 106 780 2591 11847 37462 30460

Date: 2017-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59337 22810 5029 2347 347 40 5 0
OW 51 110 249 990 560 71 17 0
VODI 0 39 196 891 1081 257 54 0
ODI 0 9 139 772 1222 514 143 27
CDI 0 6 151 1212 2976 5120 1573 62
VCDI 0 0 60 468 1938 14213 35326 26636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59337 22655 4607 2366 873 166 61 0
OW 51 134 260 659 479 109 63 0
VODI 0 131 360 604 803 212 81 14
ODI 0 50 253 607 882 481 111 34
CDI 0 4 265 1723 2404 4374 1623 72
VCDI 0 0 79 721 2683 14873 35179 26605


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