Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 8 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 8 69 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 541 6148 30050
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 19 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 3 68 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 22 525 6119 30050

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 14 11 0
CDI 0 0 6 32 33 63 9 0
VCDI 0 0 19 39 64 122 608 2113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 12 72 24 0
VCDI 0 0 25 65 85 125 595 2113

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 39 14 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 43 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 55 7 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 234 279 207 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 80 954 3142 4733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 18 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 38 7 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 160 99 91 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 199 303 1073 3135 4733

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 135 80 24 1 0 0 0
OW 0 139 135 65 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 66 165 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 101 163 30 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 146 260 168 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 333 2643 932
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 56 41 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 14 43 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 27 66 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 59 70 87 29 0 0 0
CDI 0 79 176 213 55 12 0 0
VCDI 0 2 55 150 225 489 2645 932

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 6 1 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 153 94 37 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 169 909 4144 1547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 4 2 27 0
CDI 0 0 1 89 35 51 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 129 234 894 4093 1547

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 7 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 666 3338 1263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 7 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 666 3345 1263

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 39 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 107 9 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 64 135 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 924 4609 155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 35 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 16 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 48 21 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 99 137 129 2
VCDI 0 0 0 5 173 910 4529 153

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1366 5366 765 427 49 5 0 0
OW 0 9 29 240 85 8 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 146 194 19 1 0
ODI 0 0 2 48 212 44 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 120 427 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 882 793 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1366 5360 761 462 103 14 0 0
OW 0 13 31 142 120 16 1 0
VODI 0 3 6 163 152 42 7 0
ODI 0 1 2 71 109 70 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 142 357 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 49 886 730 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3041 3963 812 206 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 9 179 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 142 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 212 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 249 1106 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 380 1175 28
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3041 3963 809 243 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1 12 145 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 115 123 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 111 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 267 739 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 710 1180 28

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6905 4028 873 345 100 14 0 0
OW 0 1 22 88 44 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 70 60 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 104 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 162 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6905 4029 868 344 135 29 0 0
OW 0 0 27 84 18 30 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 75 112 102 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 109 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 16 33 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 106 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 127 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 118 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 184 316 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 212 2094 2414 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 16 30 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 91 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 55 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 219 250 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 253 2163 2407 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 4 0 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 4 28 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 59 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 35 68 77 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 60 138 376 565 4 0
VCDI 0 0 4 137 401 1311 4170 1043
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 8 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 61 48 15 0 0
CDI 0 6 34 106 235 367 27 0
VCDI 0 0 76 266 601 1515 4147 1043

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7677 6437 1133 892 220 9 0 0
OW 0 0 13 205 221 29 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 153 504 75 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 803 211 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 268 681 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 305 324 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7677 6437 1134 1045 473 84 0 0
OW 0 0 10 127 471 95 19 0
VODI 0 0 2 67 493 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 230 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 330 590 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 311 310 0


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