Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 126 64 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 324 171 230 11
VCDI 0 0 0 48 979 3108 12956 27632
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 87 25 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 114 28 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 112 379 255 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 161 1371 4013 13129 25853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 5 20 50 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 80 113 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 51 225 71 6 0
CDI 0 0 4 107 639 499 98 49
VCDI 0 0 0 120 1410 5002 14022 23220
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 15 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 17 54 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 15 56 64 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 133 136 84 10 0
CDI 0 0 22 277 518 742 202 12
VCDI 0 0 0 310 1469 4299 15123 22237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 19 7 19 2 0 0 0
OW 0 12 16 44 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 12 52 68 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 118 129 75 3 0
CDI 0 0 23 302 518 769 215 34
VCDI 0 0 0 304 1466 4284 15117 22215

Date: 2017-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 41 15 19 1 0 0 0
OW 0 26 39 39 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 52 77 57 1 0 0
ODI 0 29 82 145 165 28 3 0
CDI 0 5 168 312 874 659 156 1
VCDI 0 9 42 559 1448 4640 14171 21944
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 51 21 14 3 0 0 0
OW 0 14 32 39 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 42 82 65 1 0 0
ODI 0 42 71 147 160 18 4 0
CDI 0 8 186 341 845 678 121 6
VCDI 0 8 46 528 1467 4631 14205 21939

Date: 2017-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 139 80 44 1 0 0 0
OW 0 143 139 200 39 2 0 0
VODI 0 27 78 388 133 11 0 0
ODI 0 9 136 338 318 55 12 0
CDI 0 0 67 578 1252 1189 66 0
VCDI 0 0 23 220 672 3896 12887 22724
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 56 41 5 4 0 0 0
OW 0 35 14 95 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 27 168 66 11 0 0
ODI 0 69 75 246 178 36 10 0
CDI 0 85 210 527 755 695 137 0
VCDI 0 2 156 727 1380 4411 12818 22724

Date: 2017-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 126 214 151 24 2 0 0
OW 0 52 137 219 49 12 1 0
VODI 0 18 145 344 130 8 2 0
ODI 0 17 139 291 221 55 40 0
CDI 0 7 99 626 1090 1089 243 0
VCDI 0 0 60 358 962 3717 14627 20591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 24 34 54 23 2 0 0
OW 0 15 24 136 51 6 0 0
VODI 0 75 57 241 110 20 5 0
ODI 0 61 172 264 154 64 42 0
CDI 0 43 378 596 633 563 344 13
VCDI 0 2 129 698 1505 4228 14522 20578

Date: 2017-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 242 156 108 17 1 0 0
OW 0 60 133 225 62 15 1 0
VODI 0 42 194 308 124 15 7 0
ODI 0 30 125 288 227 74 27 0
CDI 0 5 187 772 976 586 296 0
VCDI 0 0 11 390 1216 3876 15999 19071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 70 44 41 24 1 0 0
OW 0 60 30 140 74 15 2 0
VODI 0 95 115 305 150 15 6 0
ODI 0 92 175 265 171 79 71 0
CDI 0 54 346 822 733 564 568 28
VCDI 0 8 96 518 1470 3893 15683 19043


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