Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57410 19601 6482 2040 313 52 2 0
OW 50 16 56 677 600 48 7 0
VODI 0 19 5 373 886 355 38 0
ODI 0 8 1 211 851 570 43 0
CDI 0 0 1 128 1377 2289 364 18
VCDI 0 0 0 174 1621 8569 30511 51282
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59173 19012 4887 2326 710 107 22 0
OW 62 19 76 528 543 200 20 0
VODI 0 36 21 367 690 556 52 0
ODI 0 12 2 259 730 524 31 0
CDI 0 1 0 269 1452 2222 356 35
VCDI 0 0 0 354 2245 11846 30093 47210
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58246 20383 4549 2679 520 44 0 0
OW 60 28 41 531 632 54 0 0
VODI 0 14 12 427 1213 170 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 192 1263 789 30 0
CDI 0 0 4 235 1656 2485 303 64
VCDI 0 0 0 264 2161 10773 32056 45155
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59200 21036 3715 2039 458 69 0 0
OW 60 47 127 662 540 100 3 0
VODI 0 19 30 488 1013 415 20 0
ODI 0 3 16 297 827 679 96 0
CDI 0 1 22 441 1179 2539 576 12
VCDI 0 0 0 490 2035 8904 34876 44014
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59200 21038 3752 2205 575 81 0 0
OW 60 50 99 522 524 119 3 0
VODI 0 14 18 425 937 418 25 0
ODI 0 3 18 295 806 666 80 0
CDI 0 1 23 476 1179 2607 635 34
VCDI 0 0 0 494 2031 8815 34828 43992

Date: 2017-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61087 19571 3673 1825 448 64 0 0
OW 60 48 216 625 547 166 9 0
VODI 0 60 98 585 912 357 36 0
ODI 0 31 82 369 814 392 92 0
CDI 0 7 168 512 1570 2367 536 4
VCDI 0 9 42 686 1989 8897 34103 43991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61087 19585 3701 1968 552 85 0 0
OW 60 32 193 505 507 179 8 0
VODI 0 47 82 557 902 313 27 0
ODI 0 45 71 375 786 433 103 0
CDI 0 9 186 520 1515 2451 558 10
VCDI 0 8 46 677 2018 8782 34080 43985

Date: 2017-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60345 20388 3736 1946 370 28 0 0
OW 57 162 223 964 401 54 0 0
VODI 0 29 82 959 1027 133 2 0
ODI 0 9 139 493 1737 445 35 0
CDI 0 0 67 755 1960 3944 346 0
VCDI 0 0 23 263 1131 9423 33508 41864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60345 20300 3679 2126 722 127 0 0
OW 57 57 110 615 685 145 20 0
VODI 0 74 37 641 948 287 7 0
ODI 0 70 77 439 721 406 73 0
CDI 0 85 211 675 1519 2786 556 2
VCDI 0 2 156 884 2031 10276 33235 41862

Date: 2017-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54903 20816 9022 2342 483 54 0 0
OW 55 64 211 986 527 61 4 0
VODI 0 29 154 853 1074 130 48 0
ODI 0 17 146 458 1188 312 159 0
CDI 0 7 104 817 2123 3295 521 16
VCDI 0 0 60 485 1859 11358 33687 38620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54902 20711 8747 2433 993 112 9 0
OW 56 23 144 620 738 106 32 0
VODI 0 90 107 700 676 214 120 0
ODI 0 62 174 483 718 324 139 0
CDI 0 45 396 809 1569 2336 632 13
VCDI 0 2 129 896 2560 12118 33487 38623

Date: 2017-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22481 5295 2510 596 33 0 0
OW 54 75 180 937 643 98 2 0
VODI 0 55 206 775 966 259 39 0
ODI 0 30 136 498 922 400 117 0
CDI 0 5 228 969 2003 2682 625 0
VCDI 0 0 12 580 2252 11548 34959 36771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22301 5060 2657 1258 172 1 0
OW 54 71 161 524 547 121 18 0
VODI 0 113 160 739 607 275 108 0
ODI 0 99 180 525 649 449 181 0
CDI 0 54 400 1082 1711 2600 989 28
VCDI 0 8 96 742 2610 11403 34445 36743


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