Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58140 19323 4370 2415 307 29 0 0
OW 51 2 112 578 596 31 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 250 796 321 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 497 676 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 543 1520 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 364 4320 8283 5099
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57784 20222 4573 2083 324 32 0 0
OW 51 40 113 507 630 47 0 0
VODI 0 1 9 279 828 335 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 125 575 521 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 648 1135 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 426 4740 7614 5202
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59330 19311 3949 2450 237 29 0 0
OW 50 17 14 628 344 22 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 330 820 152 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 862 540 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 679 2095 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 224 4267 8294 4108
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 22250 5100 2057 318 41 1 0
OW 50 8 14 629 450 55 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 305 840 293 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 109 714 616 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1136 2404 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 136 3768 7485 4295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 22252 5101 2159 358 48 1 0
OW 50 6 13 527 486 61 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 307 795 346 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 663 593 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1158 2409 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 3720 7500 4295

Date: 2017-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57791 20058 5229 2127 466 65 3 0
OW 62 6 15 551 575 113 9 0
VODI 0 2 0 239 705 443 102 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 595 473 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 908 1762 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 337 4234 7975 3894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57791 20059 5224 2257 560 95 3 0
OW 62 5 20 430 572 156 29 0
VODI 0 2 0 229 668 406 93 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 568 450 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 890 1814 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 328 4169 7977 3894

Date: 2017-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59332 18014 5277 2553 368 51 16 0
OW 61 8 3 605 502 39 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 278 889 115 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 1295 540 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 857 2458 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 228 4102 6951 4347
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59333 18014 5257 2799 837 162 16 0
OW 60 8 23 374 705 214 12 0
VODI 0 0 0 202 821 252 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 592 418 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 830 1403 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 354 4856 6951 4347

Date: 2017-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57048 21065 5286 2163 465 48 0 0
OW 60 14 31 607 513 68 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 326 1033 244 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 807 607 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 761 1371 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 249 3495 7410 5031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57048 21068 5251 2383 918 158 14 0
OW 60 11 65 413 608 196 45 0
VODI 0 0 1 274 666 273 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 561 359 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 599 981 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 476 3866 7475 5031

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20775 3079 1857 385 59 0 0
OW 60 31 111 591 557 97 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 358 895 377 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 134 589 428 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 593 1557 192 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 229 2825 7962 5091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20797 3088 2100 813 239 44 0
OW 60 9 86 405 468 133 40 0
VODI 0 0 16 284 557 313 30 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 524 299 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 595 1362 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 291 2997 7879 5091


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