Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 30 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 107 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 307 238 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 898 3069 12000 29065
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 49 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 123 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 365 121 129 6
VCDI 0 0 0 99 1024 3085 11883 28900
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 8 24 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 122 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 197 21 11 3
CDI 0 0 0 47 343 185 134 42
VCDI 0 0 0 100 864 3192 13239 27259
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 15 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 62 81 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 183 47 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 341 199 200 7
VCDI 0 0 0 81 1158 3007 14196 26191
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 25 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 56 87 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 166 49 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 316 201 234 9
VCDI 0 0 0 82 1187 3002 14163 26189

Date: 2017-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 15 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 72 43 2 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 103 55 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 316 159 195 12
VCDI 0 0 0 77 1247 3270 11737 28447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 15 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 64 50 5 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 112 61 7 1
CDI 0 0 0 58 297 175 279 18
VCDI 0 0 0 74 1242 3245 11650 28440

Date: 2017-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 67 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 146 100 17 1 0
ODI 0 0 3 65 251 69 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 128 630 481 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 82 1125 4341 13252 24942
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 18 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 74 58 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 80 149 58 26 0
CDI 0 0 6 134 440 369 167 0
VCDI 0 0 2 182 1464 4473 13192 24942

Date: 2017-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 11 1 0 0 0
OW 0 3 10 62 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 54 86 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 51 177 73 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 178 496 800 187 17
VCDI 0 0 0 258 1397 4458 15263 22213
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 17 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 9 45 72 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 72 113 74 22 0
CDI 0 0 6 150 382 850 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 330 1605 4384 15135 22230

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6 6 44 6 0 0 0
OW 0 21 22 28 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 44 64 59 3 0 0
ODI 0 14 51 135 151 52 10 0
CDI 0 15 93 326 616 760 217 3
VCDI 0 0 8 444 1439 4212 14368 22618
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 0 4 7 0 0 0
OW 0 12 0 11 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 33 76 55 9 0 0
ODI 0 17 73 156 120 41 4 0
CDI 0 9 100 372 420 496 280 8
VCDI 0 0 18 422 1667 4481 14311 22613


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