Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58140 19411 4523 2452 311 29 0 0
OW 51 7 145 612 607 31 0 0
VODI 0 7 27 334 834 324 2 0
ODI 0 12 0 135 650 703 41 0
CDI 0 1 0 62 1001 1919 466 12
VCDI 0 0 0 57 1555 9195 34343 49049
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57784 20357 4673 2119 330 32 0 0
OW 51 42 147 538 643 47 0 0
VODI 0 21 35 343 887 337 15 0
ODI 0 10 0 164 745 557 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 1118 1413 254 13
VCDI 0 0 0 139 1758 9897 33072 49301
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59330 19389 4128 2518 247 29 0 0
OW 50 29 31 692 374 24 0 0
VODI 0 9 0 430 963 153 11 0
ODI 0 3 0 136 1092 563 55 3
CDI 0 1 0 139 1175 2337 360 64
VCDI 0 0 0 125 1449 9301 33782 48056
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 22318 5296 2108 323 41 1 0
OW 50 22 29 716 479 56 0 0
VODI 0 14 3 410 930 294 7 0
ODI 0 5 0 171 945 682 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 141 1616 2746 423 13
VCDI 0 0 0 194 1679 8013 32698 48847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 22322 5306 2222 367 48 1 0
OW 50 24 21 613 521 62 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 398 891 348 8 0
ODI 0 4 0 172 874 658 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 135 1603 2744 437 16
VCDI 0 0 0 200 1716 7972 32680 48844

Date: 2017-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57791 20180 5357 2150 466 65 3 0
OW 62 21 58 607 599 113 9 0
VODI 0 36 7 364 760 445 104 0
ODI 0 12 0 194 748 561 51 0
CDI 0 1 0 143 1344 2100 370 24
VCDI 0 0 0 201 2059 10001 30030 50012
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57791 20189 5362 2291 566 95 3 0
OW 62 21 54 483 603 156 29 0
VODI 0 30 6 334 731 411 95 0
ODI 0 9 0 205 725 546 46 1
CDI 0 1 0 154 1311 2154 444 34
VCDI 0 0 0 192 2040 9923 29950 50001

Date: 2017-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59332 18214 5422 2605 374 51 16 0
OW 61 30 22 715 529 39 0 0
VODI 0 12 17 544 1017 136 1 0
ODI 0 5 3 229 1613 651 21 0
CDI 0 0 1 284 1712 3166 275 16
VCDI 0 0 0 176 1905 10934 30898 46022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59333 18195 5338 2823 847 162 16 0
OW 60 37 68 427 722 214 12 0
VODI 0 18 42 324 901 262 18 0
ODI 0 10 7 245 782 519 52 0
CDI 0 1 8 285 1409 1960 374 55
VCDI 0 0 2 449 2489 11860 30739 45983

Date: 2017-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57048 21213 5417 2226 468 48 0 0
OW 60 33 66 728 552 68 0 0
VODI 0 14 18 470 1155 259 5 0
ODI 0 10 9 212 1040 708 55 0
CDI 0 0 2 329 1381 2391 461 23
VCDI 0 0 0 420 2150 9960 33586 44463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57048 21214 5328 2400 922 158 14 0
OW 60 28 134 481 630 196 45 0
VODI 0 18 28 377 764 310 16 0
ODI 0 9 16 237 707 482 58 3
CDI 0 1 6 288 1057 2028 606 66
VCDI 0 0 0 602 2666 10260 33368 44417

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20890 3188 1932 392 59 0 0
OW 60 53 151 663 578 97 2 0
VODI 0 26 78 546 1001 381 24 0
ODI 0 16 51 346 820 493 92 0
CDI 0 17 93 520 1310 2515 530 3
VCDI 0 0 8 572 2034 8729 34421 44261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20900 3159 2120 821 239 44 0
OW 60 31 145 459 489 133 40 0
VODI 0 43 74 435 635 324 30 0
ODI 0 19 73 354 686 376 43 2
CDI 0 9 100 541 1092 2024 857 67
VCDI 0 0 18 670 2412 9178 34055 44195


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