Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-04-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 14 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 23 44 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 120 38 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 196 288 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 171 1765 14355 28698
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 27 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 24 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 130 260 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 185 1858 11122 32040
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 170 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 274 145 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 492 2130 11480 31077
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 111 20 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 322 119 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 976 2738 12034 29385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 112 20 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 333 137 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 966 2720 12031 29385

Date: 2017-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 40 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 108 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 303 181 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 1114 3297 13294 27329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 49 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 119 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 351 211 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 1049 3267 13254 27329

Date: 2017-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 235 8 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 440 142 88 16
VCDI 0 0 0 58 722 3144 12681 28022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 162 23 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 297 142 186 27
VCDI 0 0 0 165 948 3129 12573 28011

Date: 2017-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 11 26 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 121 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 176 22 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 296 203 227 13
VCDI 0 0 0 107 1147 3207 14100 26034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 20 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 110 10 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 182 62 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 295 264 404 13
VCDI 0 0 0 131 1156 3100 13906 26034

Date: 2017-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 126 64 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 324 171 230 11
VCDI 0 0 0 48 979 3108 12956 27632
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 99 39 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 192 133 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 266 390 594 35
VCDI 0 0 0 63 952 2781 12584 27608


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