Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57539 20296 4470 2137 295 16 0 0
OW 51 51 147 573 346 30 0 0
VODI 0 5 80 419 731 178 31 0
ODI 0 0 32 275 786 517 66 0
CDI 0 0 11 139 864 1913 500 14
VCDI 0 0 0 79 567 7156 36404 50330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53487 21019 7880 2139 260 24 0 0
OW 51 47 197 618 345 36 0 0
VODI 0 22 119 399 738 193 15 0
ODI 0 1 46 292 594 548 91 0
CDI 0 0 13 217 776 1846 459 26
VCDI 0 0 0 67 934 6898 32803 53848
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56362 20770 5098 2308 229 21 0 0
OW 51 11 65 817 335 21 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 449 874 158 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 937 575 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 860 2617 420 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 785 6954 34343 51788
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57002 19680 5330 2554 263 29 0 0
OW 51 2 85 735 449 30 0 0
VODI 0 1 10 415 933 186 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 104 834 560 32 3
CDI 0 0 0 36 1163 1834 397 16
VCDI 0 0 0 27 1676 9286 34726 48596
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57002 19678 5347 2684 309 32 0 0
OW 51 4 67 642 412 28 0 0
VODI 0 1 11 379 933 163 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 103 837 594 25 4
CDI 0 0 0 35 1180 1810 405 15
VCDI 0 0 0 28 1647 9298 34725 48596

Date: 2017-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58436 18906 4828 2471 429 18 0 0
OW 51 42 168 543 654 22 0 0
VODI 0 14 25 351 903 289 0 0
ODI 0 13 0 137 810 566 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 1043 1763 267 7
VCDI 0 0 0 103 1668 9698 35077 47624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58436 18928 4925 2606 531 26 0 0
OW 51 25 72 421 546 31 0 0
VODI 0 9 21 334 897 252 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 145 826 541 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 1137 1814 302 11
VCDI 0 0 0 110 1570 9692 35051 47620

Date: 2017-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58388 20247 4594 1918 192 33 0 0
OW 51 31 42 767 304 21 0 0
VODI 0 12 0 569 858 76 1 0
ODI 0 3 0 160 1346 433 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 139 1398 2219 279 21
VCDI 0 0 0 77 1191 9831 33813 48023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58389 20241 4539 2181 356 48 0 0
OW 50 31 75 525 491 69 0 0
VODI 0 13 21 398 819 344 8 0
ODI 0 8 1 153 810 554 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 166 1115 1518 395 55
VCDI 0 0 0 207 1698 10080 33662 47989

Date: 2017-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55348 20646 6883 2451 356 50 8 0
OW 50 25 27 660 480 56 2 0
VODI 0 5 0 343 1029 187 29 0
ODI 0 3 0 175 949 606 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 178 1255 2810 472 18
VCDI 0 0 0 185 1847 9243 33954 46651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55348 20639 6756 2450 569 73 8 0
OW 50 13 117 461 451 169 11 0
VODI 0 13 36 432 917 364 31 0
ODI 0 8 1 202 789 623 91 0
CDI 0 6 0 226 1212 1963 671 62
VCDI 0 0 0 221 1978 9760 33720 46607

Date: 2017-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57410 19601 6482 2040 313 52 2 0
OW 50 16 56 677 600 48 7 0
VODI 0 19 5 373 886 355 38 0
ODI 0 8 1 211 851 570 43 0
CDI 0 0 1 128 1377 2289 364 18
VCDI 0 0 0 174 1621 8569 30511 51282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57398 19567 6322 2085 500 96 2 0
OW 62 40 147 455 565 132 36 0
VODI 0 23 72 474 712 490 38 0
ODI 0 12 2 224 823 580 38 0
CDI 0 2 2 181 1347 2057 747 107
VCDI 0 0 0 184 1701 8528 30104 51193


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