Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59403 19891 3193 2097 337 9 0 0
OW 52 25 148 675 364 32 0 0
VODI 0 2 46 473 675 241 23 0
ODI 0 0 1 257 628 607 77 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 771 1520 624 17
VCDI 0 0 0 10 400 6679 35952 51734
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55983 22017 4143 2147 371 8 0 0
OW 52 43 108 666 390 84 3 0
VODI 0 4 56 501 733 315 32 0
ODI 0 0 6 276 577 570 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 144 618 1489 619 5
VCDI 0 0 0 18 615 6653 36356 51391
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54901 23053 4499 1982 240 7 0 0
OW 52 16 66 745 289 43 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 572 669 157 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 205 878 479 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 985 1752 425 3
VCDI 0 0 0 28 636 8266 42415 43622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55049 23256 3905 2254 259 12 0 0
OW 52 38 134 629 297 33 0 0
VODI 0 4 47 458 723 201 15 0
ODI 0 0 15 296 759 565 22 0
CDI 0 0 1 108 829 1915 494 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 563 7332 39963 46785
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55049 23237 3923 2314 279 11 0 0
OW 52 47 113 616 296 39 0 0
VODI 0 14 39 473 726 159 18 0
ODI 0 0 26 231 763 619 14 0
CDI 0 0 1 111 794 1828 494 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 572 7402 39968 46785

Date: 2017-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56120 22914 3438 2032 250 20 0 0
OW 51 87 178 585 304 40 0 0
VODI 0 19 120 441 716 175 17 0
ODI 0 0 40 274 745 486 73 0
CDI 0 0 16 179 900 1858 492 16
VCDI 0 0 0 76 717 6771 34641 52257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56119 22914 3505 2140 274 20 0 0
OW 52 59 143 519 298 27 0 0
VODI 0 40 57 474 710 178 6 0
ODI 0 7 55 240 774 494 91 0
CDI 0 0 32 119 827 1893 574 24
VCDI 0 0 0 95 749 6738 34552 52249

Date: 2017-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54420 23253 4080 2609 205 27 0 0
OW 51 18 186 813 247 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 23 635 725 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 149 1124 512 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 822 3058 497 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 429 6957 33839 52205
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54420 23158 4074 2982 370 37 0 0
OW 51 64 79 549 367 64 0 0
VODI 0 39 51 380 785 284 17 0
ODI 0 10 60 161 555 637 146 0
CDI 0 0 26 136 622 2081 630 32
VCDI 0 0 0 53 853 7516 33563 52196

Date: 2017-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57914 19995 4260 2409 271 30 0 0
OW 51 11 96 660 481 36 0 0
VODI 0 2 20 374 898 188 1 0
ODI 0 1 2 114 813 575 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 1039 2086 394 7
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1320 8261 34777 49865
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57914 19905 4185 2404 485 78 0 0
OW 51 59 67 503 412 95 0 0
VODI 0 39 43 384 822 375 35 0
ODI 0 6 73 160 627 632 88 0
CDI 0 0 10 130 886 1828 586 13
VCDI 0 0 0 40 1590 8168 34496 49859

Date: 2017-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58140 19411 4523 2452 311 29 0 0
OW 51 7 145 612 607 31 0 0
VODI 0 7 27 334 834 324 2 0
ODI 0 12 0 135 650 703 41 0
CDI 0 1 0 62 1001 1919 466 12
VCDI 0 0 0 57 1555 9195 34343 49049
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58140 19335 4426 2505 596 70 0 0
OW 51 71 101 399 562 183 0 0
VODI 0 26 128 349 647 543 57 0
ODI 0 6 40 176 483 509 121 1
CDI 0 0 0 179 830 1624 440 74
VCDI 0 0 0 44 1840 9272 34234 48986


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