Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-04-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24062 6700 2118 387 54 0 0
OW 51 13 48 545 512 92 4 0
VODI 0 2 15 313 575 290 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 353 496 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 322 904 361 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 2615 9786 6650
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53969 18982 9632 1765 458 66 0 0
OW 51 14 94 507 532 118 5 0
VODI 0 1 14 309 449 328 57 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 265 437 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 380 688 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 199 3083 9849 6237
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55438 21472 6357 1397 235 57 0 0
OW 52 11 50 740 248 94 1 0
VODI 0 0 9 385 495 213 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 345 371 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 473 718 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 449 2546 9984 6463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58804 20720 3569 1519 292 54 1 0
OW 52 21 106 535 377 81 6 0
VODI 0 1 29 344 489 248 55 0
ODI 0 1 4 175 321 399 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 371 850 545 1
VCDI 0 0 0 22 348 1891 9581 7148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58804 20718 3548 1569 346 58 0 0
OW 52 22 124 478 349 74 5 0
VODI 0 2 31 352 478 249 61 0
ODI 0 1 4 162 293 380 61 0
CDI 0 0 1 79 367 846 517 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 365 1916 9610 7149

Date: 2017-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55739 21173 5687 1947 341 58 0 0
OW 52 31 105 489 419 123 14 0
VODI 0 5 38 342 423 315 64 0
ODI 0 0 9 177 356 568 69 0
CDI 0 0 1 79 432 865 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 195 1599 9556 7486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55739 21175 5687 1965 404 74 0 0
OW 52 28 100 457 350 123 12 0
VODI 0 5 44 355 424 321 58 0
ODI 0 1 7 177 360 538 80 0
CDI 0 0 2 77 407 815 289 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 221 1657 9600 7486

Date: 2017-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55541 23180 4401 1550 192 36 0 0
OW 52 17 129 713 291 21 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 485 524 118 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 621 364 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 335 1284 411 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 1653 9862 6978
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55542 23153 4330 1694 431 61 0 0
OW 51 40 144 466 360 111 14 0
VODI 0 4 49 406 431 318 70 0
ODI 0 0 12 189 336 572 106 0
CDI 0 0 0 129 284 768 353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 236 1646 9797 6978

Date: 2017-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56551 22842 3384 1820 233 4 0 0
OW 52 43 138 618 278 31 0 0
VODI 0 2 18 492 601 176 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 626 530 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 470 1177 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 141 2624 9280 6272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56552 22801 3250 1981 503 40 0 0
OW 51 77 179 392 412 162 12 0
VODI 0 9 95 394 462 411 29 0
ODI 0 0 16 232 365 527 130 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 417 965 478 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 190 2437 9135 6272

Date: 2017-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59403 19812 3005 2072 337 9 0 0
OW 52 25 129 651 364 32 0 0
VODI 0 2 42 413 641 230 8 0
ODI 0 0 1 148 558 535 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 541 1217 542 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 198 2843 8807 6372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59404 19773 2885 2263 706 79 3 0
OW 51 37 145 432 397 171 10 0
VODI 0 25 97 354 506 461 86 0
ODI 0 4 26 140 399 420 201 0
CDI 0 0 24 107 368 1012 537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 263 2723 8583 6372


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