Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24180 7003 2218 387 54 0 0
OW 51 14 90 680 526 92 4 0
VODI 0 4 34 504 758 291 43 0
ODI 0 1 25 171 529 610 176 1
CDI 0 0 1 51 444 1279 620 50
VCDI 0 0 0 22 373 5895 31628 56734
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53969 19063 9815 1828 461 66 0 0
OW 51 15 99 703 540 118 5 0
VODI 0 2 17 523 489 328 57 0
ODI 0 0 7 236 487 536 101 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 555 1032 671 24
VCDI 0 0 0 54 418 6783 31250 56670
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55438 21539 6467 1547 247 57 0 0
OW 52 13 52 782 300 94 1 0
VODI 0 1 9 425 777 218 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 180 563 463 70 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 632 1273 543 24
VCDI 0 0 0 1 557 5087 31080 58480
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58804 20785 3707 1618 296 54 1 0
OW 52 22 106 583 382 81 6 0
VODI 0 1 29 378 524 254 55 0
ODI 0 1 4 196 470 539 69 1
CDI 0 0 0 88 594 1172 795 124
VCDI 0 0 0 36 473 4734 30969 59045
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58804 20783 3686 1677 350 58 0 0
OW 52 23 124 523 357 74 5 0
VODI 0 2 31 385 515 253 61 0
ODI 0 1 4 177 416 490 65 1
CDI 0 0 1 93 605 1173 777 126
VCDI 0 0 0 44 496 4786 30987 59043

Date: 2017-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55739 21231 5799 2065 344 58 0 0
OW 52 32 107 532 425 123 14 0
VODI 0 5 38 376 441 315 64 0
ODI 0 0 9 189 418 649 87 1
CDI 0 0 1 86 533 1321 632 117
VCDI 0 0 0 7 423 5287 28297 61231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55739 21233 5799 2092 406 74 0 0
OW 52 29 102 500 358 123 12 0
VODI 0 5 44 380 456 322 58 0
ODI 0 1 7 186 429 601 90 0
CDI 0 0 2 87 499 1332 655 118
VCDI 0 0 0 10 436 5301 28279 61231

Date: 2017-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55541 23261 4586 1606 192 36 0 0
OW 52 18 140 765 294 21 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 562 552 121 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 145 724 436 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 538 1677 502 37
VCDI 0 0 0 0 440 6593 28582 59492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55542 23232 4508 1739 431 61 0 0
OW 51 43 161 497 364 111 14 0
VODI 0 4 50 488 451 318 70 0
ODI 0 0 12 241 410 632 115 0
CDI 0 0 0 147 474 1163 536 93
VCDI 0 0 0 19 610 6599 28426 59436

Date: 2017-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56551 23046 3485 1834 233 4 0 0
OW 52 56 158 638 278 31 0 0
VODI 0 2 48 558 604 176 8 0
ODI 0 0 9 226 736 569 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 666 1471 573 35
VCDI 0 0 0 10 439 7131 32344 54915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56552 22988 3334 1991 503 40 0 0
OW 51 99 199 403 412 162 12 0
VODI 0 17 117 428 464 411 29 0
ODI 0 0 41 317 466 592 142 0
CDI 0 0 9 148 603 1349 700 66
VCDI 0 0 0 59 508 6828 32124 54884

Date: 2017-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59403 19891 3193 2097 337 9 0 0
OW 52 25 148 675 364 32 0 0
VODI 0 2 46 473 675 241 23 0
ODI 0 0 1 257 628 607 77 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 771 1520 624 17
VCDI 0 0 0 10 400 6679 35952 51734
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59404 19848 3056 2273 706 79 3 0
OW 51 41 168 457 397 171 10 0
VODI 0 25 108 398 510 461 86 0
ODI 0 4 31 207 430 432 217 0
CDI 0 0 25 191 490 1339 850 23
VCDI 0 0 0 71 642 6606 35510 51728


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