Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-03-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25561 6888 2087 452 47 0 0
OW 51 3 104 661 421 66 19 0
VODI 0 1 25 396 577 226 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 429 350 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 465 900 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 172 3611 10459 4641
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50615 24440 7434 1966 501 37 1 0
OW 51 38 140 565 434 79 15 0
VODI 0 17 31 427 527 258 25 0
ODI 0 1 24 119 365 438 37 0
CDI 0 0 13 39 362 796 138 0
VCDI 0 0 1 49 349 3775 9212 5781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51445 25606 5631 1760 314 37 0 0
OW 51 11 157 642 400 52 2 0
VODI 0 1 21 318 595 201 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 453 459 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 405 984 206 2
VCDI 0 0 0 1 447 3588 9348 5774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55559 23078 4038 1777 351 40 4 0
OW 51 13 46 599 504 50 11 0
VODI 0 2 15 272 606 242 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 386 550 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 264 1080 318 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 179 2613 9667 6611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55559 23077 4041 1838 367 37 4 0
OW 51 12 39 527 505 55 9 0
VODI 0 4 19 279 574 227 37 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 383 567 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 268 1049 253 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 193 2640 9750 6612

Date: 2017-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56241 21122 5189 1813 454 60 0 0
OW 51 18 74 507 531 114 4 0
VODI 0 1 17 327 454 363 53 0
ODI 0 0 0 104 265 446 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 345 723 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 2792 9821 6664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56241 21122 5168 1804 494 66 0 0
OW 51 18 92 517 469 103 4 0
VODI 0 1 19 300 448 332 41 0
ODI 0 0 1 117 266 456 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 334 711 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 187 2830 9856 6664

Date: 2017-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51737 22017 8899 1671 324 48 1 0
OW 52 2 83 766 267 90 3 0
VODI 0 0 7 335 612 160 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 457 383 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 427 900 225 1
VCDI 0 0 0 32 230 2824 9999 6371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51738 21995 8819 1890 568 101 2 0
OW 51 23 125 389 381 123 12 0
VODI 0 1 40 312 410 272 65 0
ODI 0 0 5 185 236 388 106 0
CDI 0 0 0 112 359 669 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 363 2852 9799 6372

Date: 2017-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57909 21958 3448 1441 250 43 0 0
OW 52 13 89 612 326 72 1 0
VODI 0 0 19 389 458 243 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 148 280 424 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 370 748 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 393 2307 9687 6940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57910 21938 3363 1547 524 106 7 0
OW 51 32 142 366 285 145 12 0
VODI 0 1 43 385 243 361 61 0
ODI 0 0 8 219 225 384 102 0
CDI 0 0 0 120 379 552 383 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 421 2289 9542 6940

Date: 2017-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56950 21386 4578 1594 287 45 0 0
OW 52 26 87 515 441 85 6 0
VODI 0 2 31 340 445 277 67 0
ODI 0 1 5 172 366 484 110 0
CDI 0 0 1 73 395 843 551 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 308 1667 9375 7523
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56951 21373 4492 1614 596 140 20 0
OW 51 34 143 385 291 156 37 0
VODI 0 6 46 335 372 327 96 0
ODI 0 2 17 181 234 441 172 0
CDI 0 0 4 158 346 759 625 1
VCDI 0 0 0 33 403 1578 9159 7522


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