Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25887 7079 2137 452 47 0 0
OW 51 111 212 819 448 66 19 0
VODI 0 34 123 557 699 227 25 0
ODI 0 0 36 236 526 403 144 1
CDI 0 0 20 130 615 1207 453 22
VCDI 0 0 1 95 498 6556 33047 54019
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50615 24653 7604 2012 501 37 1 0
OW 51 64 284 777 465 79 15 0
VODI 0 23 114 627 656 259 25 0
ODI 0 1 75 233 462 518 59 0
CDI 0 0 28 128 480 1073 432 25
VCDI 0 0 3 133 562 6667 29895 57412
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51445 25905 6055 1875 314 37 0 0
OW 51 23 232 834 404 52 2 0
VODI 0 1 56 556 685 201 25 0
ODI 0 0 6 182 599 514 101 6
CDI 0 0 0 96 531 1267 498 26
VCDI 0 0 0 69 686 6350 29599 57765
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55559 23314 4317 1876 353 40 4 0
OW 51 22 102 784 520 50 11 0
VODI 0 11 56 515 744 247 43 0
ODI 0 0 22 139 547 652 159 0
CDI 0 0 8 43 454 1409 681 101
VCDI 0 0 1 39 517 5829 30863 56965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55559 23312 4311 1946 372 37 4 0
OW 51 22 99 656 545 55 9 0
VODI 0 11 53 577 730 235 37 0
ODI 0 2 33 130 498 675 152 0
CDI 0 0 10 48 444 1374 637 94
VCDI 0 0 0 39 546 5851 30922 56972

Date: 2017-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56241 21208 5384 1898 458 60 0 0
OW 51 19 82 740 541 114 4 0
VODI 0 3 23 500 552 363 53 0
ODI 0 0 21 174 543 540 126 0
CDI 0 0 6 88 442 1124 591 22
VCDI 0 0 0 33 391 6536 29927 58190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56241 21208 5362 1901 498 66 0 0
OW 51 19 98 715 477 103 4 0
VODI 0 3 27 493 640 341 41 0
ODI 0 0 20 203 444 585 167 0
CDI 0 0 9 96 468 1087 561 21
VCDI 0 0 0 25 400 6555 29928 58191

Date: 2017-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51737 22108 9064 1764 333 49 1 0
OW 52 4 84 936 275 90 3 0
VODI 0 3 7 591 689 164 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 195 679 451 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 578 1412 406 29
VCDI 0 0 0 36 349 5895 30737 58234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51738 22084 8971 1947 580 102 2 0
OW 51 27 137 450 384 125 12 0
VODI 0 3 42 563 444 278 65 0
ODI 0 1 5 341 436 518 166 0
CDI 0 0 0 192 488 1134 694 23
VCDI 0 0 0 66 571 5904 30264 58240

Date: 2017-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57909 22025 3575 1554 257 43 0 0
OW 52 15 89 647 345 72 1 0
VODI 0 0 19 417 679 251 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 163 485 493 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 605 1217 613 96
VCDI 0 0 0 20 519 4912 32177 57653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57910 22004 3489 1621 533 106 7 0
OW 51 35 143 403 290 145 12 0
VODI 0 1 43 426 293 378 61 0
ODI 0 0 8 241 520 584 159 0
CDI 0 0 0 132 644 1111 848 91
VCDI 0 0 0 50 610 4664 31777 57658

Date: 2017-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56950 21444 4692 1718 288 45 0 0
OW 52 28 87 561 445 85 6 0
VODI 0 2 31 377 464 277 67 0
ODI 0 1 5 190 429 622 115 2
CDI 0 0 1 82 485 1216 964 78
VCDI 0 0 0 25 430 4320 29328 61136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56951 21432 4601 1714 597 140 20 0
OW 51 35 148 426 294 156 37 0
VODI 0 6 46 378 395 331 96 0
ODI 0 2 17 203 278 582 196 51
CDI 0 0 4 173 401 1441 927 288
VCDI 0 0 0 59 576 3915 29204 60877


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