Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50934 25276 7545 1344 175 100 0 0
OW 51 45 207 807 316 110 6 0
VODI 0 17 85 540 498 182 13 0
ODI 0 1 30 157 604 342 22 0
CDI 0 0 11 82 400 651 155 0
VCDI 0 0 0 197 941 3928 8205 5123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49798 24966 8285 1685 220 102 15 0
OW 51 39 177 763 463 99 34 0
VODI 0 12 38 386 629 220 52 0
ODI 0 0 21 141 487 404 71 0
CDI 0 0 9 63 349 790 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 663 4023 8890 4831
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51679 24899 5927 2142 284 30 2 0
OW 51 2 96 685 379 38 14 0
VODI 0 1 2 478 717 126 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 685 459 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 486 1302 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 211 3300 9493 5270
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50333 25543 6638 2111 397 19 0 0
OW 51 6 95 664 400 46 19 0
VODI 0 0 18 388 669 169 25 0
ODI 0 0 4 127 513 353 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 473 1065 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 155 3174 10072 5300
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50333 25543 6609 2116 434 21 1 0
OW 51 6 117 634 366 49 19 0
VODI 0 0 27 414 655 165 26 0
ODI 0 0 2 124 513 370 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 478 1009 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 161 3212 10076 5300

Date: 2017-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50277 26974 5310 1921 475 39 0 0
OW 51 4 120 613 387 91 19 0
VODI 0 1 32 393 548 281 28 0
ODI 0 0 9 96 486 401 44 0
CDI 0 0 1 47 442 811 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 265 3307 10617 4776
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50277 26974 5310 1941 497 47 3 0
OW 51 2 118 560 362 82 22 0
VODI 0 3 35 414 559 282 26 0
ODI 0 0 9 103 486 411 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 424 771 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 275 3337 10627 4776

Date: 2017-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49229 24043 9186 1728 321 37 0 0
OW 51 50 260 722 341 39 5 0
VODI 0 2 27 443 651 129 20 0
ODI 0 0 3 93 553 377 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 412 948 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 312 3778 8830 6313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49229 24057 9246 1994 532 82 10 0
OW 51 31 156 430 395 107 16 0
VODI 0 7 42 435 510 264 25 0
ODI 0 0 24 97 420 427 37 0
CDI 0 0 8 38 369 725 192 1
VCDI 0 0 0 45 364 3703 8719 6312

Date: 2017-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52383 26195 4064 1813 354 46 2 0
OW 51 9 77 592 480 57 10 0
VODI 0 1 12 255 619 236 41 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 413 548 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 308 1007 318 2
VCDI 0 0 0 10 440 3214 9481 5919
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52383 26179 4069 2016 663 109 11 0
OW 51 23 44 396 443 177 33 0
VODI 0 3 34 229 496 395 74 0
ODI 0 0 6 59 303 468 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 269 879 345 3
VCDI 0 0 0 10 440 3080 9363 5918

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24062 6700 2118 387 54 0 0
OW 51 13 48 545 512 92 4 0
VODI 0 2 15 313 575 290 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 353 496 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 322 904 361 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 2615 9786 6650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24062 6670 2308 715 145 8 0
OW 51 14 63 401 435 207 36 0
VODI 0 1 28 245 420 439 95 0
ODI 0 0 2 58 297 390 149 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 263 860 456 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 150 2410 9530 6650


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