Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 288 60 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 44 39 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 96 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 117 52 31 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 156 51 30 85
VCDI 0 0 0 47 297 869 7581 22026
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 302 61 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 86 83 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 87 89 93 10 0 0
ODI 0 7 31 138 94 60 63 0
CDI 0 0 19 161 145 196 160 79
VCDI 0 0 12 76 340 1532 10272 17768
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 413 185 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 147 118 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 77 239 134 9 4 0
ODI 0 0 14 127 195 62 75 0
CDI 0 0 5 58 251 267 221 26
VCDI 0 0 0 73 284 1834 12218 14954
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 434 107 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 104 112 140 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 70 186 123 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 32 135 115 56 101 1
CDI 0 0 14 87 145 262 219 40
VCDI 0 0 0 85 305 1508 11328 16268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 405 85 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 129 86 133 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 120 185 111 2 1 0
ODI 0 0 31 147 112 55 102 1
CDI 0 0 13 88 153 295 230 33
VCDI 0 0 0 90 307 1479 11316 16275

Date: 2017-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 187 248 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 113 243 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 79 185 120 7 0 0
ODI 0 4 54 120 92 41 27 1
CDI 0 0 20 101 101 225 244 28
VCDI 0 0 10 107 238 1443 11673 16207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 186 226 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 120 192 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 95 208 127 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 54 146 76 34 31 1
CDI 0 0 20 96 125 222 269 40
VCDI 0 0 9 115 235 1455 11644 16195

Date: 2017-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 295 453 97 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 61 219 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 296 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 181 68 38 6
CDI 0 0 0 34 135 257 198 17
VCDI 0 0 0 25 145 1386 11270 16732
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 230 186 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 54 90 103 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 159 199 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 62 158 71 82 69 8
CDI 0 0 23 127 69 248 228 30
VCDI 0 0 1 141 282 1381 11209 16717

Date: 2017-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 341 288 105 2 0 0 0
OW 0 23 48 214 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 30 228 114 4 0 0
ODI 0 5 11 65 156 85 81 0
CDI 0 0 11 38 154 304 190 28
VCDI 0 0 3 63 305 2073 12175 14894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 225 74 33 3 0 0 0
OW 0 45 49 67 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 127 165 98 3 0 0
ODI 0 16 66 133 113 79 55 6
CDI 0 33 41 105 89 273 211 19
VCDI 0 11 34 210 419 2111 12180 14897

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 118 303 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 42 135 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 19 191 183 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 25 111 176 91 95 1
CDI 0 0 1 39 121 307 235 30
VCDI 0 0 0 22 239 1913 11655 15911
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 93 181 27 1 0 0 0
OW 0 9 22 35 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 82 135 62 7 0 0
ODI 0 1 52 155 119 71 91 1
CDI 0 1 19 120 176 314 273 23
VCDI 0 0 34 126 370 1920 11621 15918


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