Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50934 25564 7605 1349 175 100 0 0
OW 51 49 251 846 328 110 6 0
VODI 0 17 129 636 534 182 13 0
ODI 0 1 35 274 656 373 28 4
CDI 0 0 11 188 557 831 300 93
VCDI 0 0 0 244 1248 5755 26572 60999
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49798 25268 8346 1692 220 102 15 0
OW 51 115 263 846 482 99 34 0
VODI 0 28 125 475 722 230 52 0
ODI 0 7 52 279 582 464 136 0
CDI 0 0 28 224 518 1108 529 100
VCDI 0 0 12 137 1119 7279 29402 56109
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51679 25312 6112 2195 284 30 2 0
OW 51 29 243 803 391 38 14 0
VODI 0 1 79 717 851 135 28 0
ODI 0 0 14 229 914 537 109 0
CDI 0 0 5 96 815 1701 408 26
VCDI 0 0 0 75 549 7422 32557 52597
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50333 25977 6745 2169 397 19 0 0
OW 51 110 207 804 419 46 19 0
VODI 0 22 88 574 792 174 26 0
ODI 0 0 36 262 629 409 136 1
CDI 0 0 14 134 649 1424 409 42
VCDI 0 0 0 91 559 6228 32353 54700
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50333 25948 6694 2164 434 21 1 0
OW 51 135 203 767 390 49 19 0
VODI 0 26 147 599 766 167 27 0
ODI 0 0 33 271 625 425 142 1
CDI 0 0 13 139 661 1407 414 35
VCDI 0 0 0 94 569 6231 32340 54707

Date: 2017-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50277 27161 5558 1975 475 39 0 0
OW 51 43 233 856 421 91 19 0
VODI 0 38 111 578 668 288 28 0
ODI 0 4 63 216 578 443 71 1
CDI 0 0 21 148 565 1164 461 38
VCDI 0 0 10 127 579 6203 31054 56392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50277 27160 5536 1994 497 47 3 0
OW 51 38 238 752 384 82 22 0
VODI 0 41 130 622 686 287 26 0
ODI 0 7 63 249 562 451 75 1
CDI 0 0 20 148 567 1139 476 58
VCDI 0 0 9 135 590 6222 31031 56372

Date: 2017-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49229 24338 9639 1825 321 37 0 0
OW 51 50 321 941 342 39 5 0
VODI 0 2 34 739 731 129 20 0
ODI 0 0 3 174 734 458 57 6
CDI 0 0 0 76 547 1258 362 21
VCDI 0 0 0 36 457 6384 28737 58945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49229 24287 9432 2018 532 82 10 0
OW 51 85 246 533 416 107 16 0
VODI 0 13 201 634 609 264 25 0
ODI 0 5 86 255 491 532 106 8
CDI 0 0 31 165 438 1027 464 33
VCDI 0 0 1 186 646 6293 28560 58931

Date: 2017-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52383 26536 4352 1918 356 46 2 0
OW 51 32 125 806 500 57 10 0
VODI 0 25 42 483 733 240 41 0
ODI 0 5 11 124 569 633 146 0
CDI 0 0 11 57 462 1313 596 119
VCDI 0 0 3 73 745 6452 30464 56527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52383 26404 4143 2049 666 109 11 0
OW 51 68 93 463 472 177 33 0
VODI 0 66 161 394 594 398 74 0
ODI 0 16 72 192 416 547 146 8
CDI 0 33 41 143 358 1152 633 99
VCDI 0 11 34 220 859 6358 30362 56539

Date: 2017-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24180 7003 2218 387 54 0 0
OW 51 14 90 680 526 92 4 0
VODI 0 4 34 504 758 291 43 0
ODI 0 1 25 171 529 610 176 1
CDI 0 0 1 51 444 1279 620 50
VCDI 0 0 0 22 373 5895 31628 56734
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51505 24155 6851 2335 716 145 8 0
OW 51 23 85 436 440 207 36 0
VODI 0 19 110 380 482 446 95 0
ODI 0 1 54 213 416 461 240 1
CDI 0 1 19 156 439 1205 760 24
VCDI 0 0 34 126 524 5757 31332 56760


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