Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-03-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54536 24337 5291 1416 251 48 0 0
OW 51 68 115 735 417 102 3 0
VODI 0 8 39 315 658 275 18 0
ODI 0 0 13 116 384 546 104 0
CDI 0 0 1 84 357 654 293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 377 2730 9857 4874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52830 21482 9852 1368 266 40 0 0
OW 51 48 139 760 427 90 0 0
VODI 0 4 29 379 579 234 5 0
ODI 0 0 2 155 451 444 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 505 620 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 669 3785 9472 4070
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52226 25997 5575 1296 201 82 0 0
OW 52 61 91 768 337 80 0 0
VODI 0 26 97 474 666 167 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 559 417 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 487 816 435 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 376 3613 9076 4857
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50914 24324 8616 1234 185 92 2 0
OW 51 47 166 788 328 116 22 0
VODI 0 9 88 581 508 159 42 0
ODI 0 0 21 152 599 291 59 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 483 662 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 150 912 3710 8348 5116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50914 24321 8622 1263 236 110 3 0
OW 51 47 168 763 297 115 22 0
VODI 0 12 83 550 483 165 34 0
ODI 0 0 18 175 556 300 64 0
CDI 0 0 1 78 491 645 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 145 952 3695 8305 5116

Date: 2017-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52390 24486 6566 1493 201 103 7 0
OW 51 55 191 791 365 106 32 0
VODI 0 23 46 411 574 192 45 0
ODI 0 9 20 162 571 323 57 0
CDI 0 0 20 74 379 682 212 0
VCDI 0 0 2 153 786 4071 7915 5536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52390 24477 6564 1596 304 116 17 0
OW 51 61 165 647 295 101 18 0
VODI 0 26 71 429 521 192 45 0
ODI 0 8 24 185 557 302 65 0
CDI 0 1 19 72 418 688 237 0
VCDI 0 0 2 155 781 4078 7886 5536

Date: 2017-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49399 27615 5933 1706 184 42 7 0
OW 51 5 54 764 312 59 26 0
VODI 0 2 2 484 775 80 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 74 727 337 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 356 1318 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 198 3538 9652 4969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49399 27596 5778 1887 500 95 36 0
OW 51 24 138 533 409 103 43 0
VODI 0 2 57 417 560 223 67 0
ODI 0 0 15 115 489 419 103 0
CDI 0 0 1 65 326 1021 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 268 3513 9495 4969

Date: 2017-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49840 25556 6687 2565 353 39 0 0
OW 51 4 93 681 355 41 12 0
VODI 0 1 24 452 630 157 19 0
ODI 0 0 2 100 628 412 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 439 1231 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 193 3110 10027 5167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49840 25526 6516 2743 622 72 29 0
OW 51 27 178 368 418 135 25 0
VODI 0 8 71 462 477 294 47 0
ODI 0 0 26 161 522 457 76 0
CDI 0 0 15 57 344 1213 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 215 2819 9838 5167

Date: 2017-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25561 6888 2087 452 47 0 0
OW 51 3 104 661 421 66 19 0
VODI 0 1 25 396 577 226 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 429 350 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 465 900 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 172 3611 10459 4641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25511 6735 2199 838 358 47 0
OW 51 36 142 407 296 174 48 0
VODI 0 12 67 408 426 272 106 0
ODI 0 4 27 154 438 417 122 0
CDI 0 2 30 41 301 684 383 0
VCDI 0 0 16 83 217 3295 10066 4641


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