Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54536 24452 5431 1450 252 48 0 0
OW 51 70 128 760 419 102 3 0
VODI 0 8 45 349 672 280 18 0
ODI 0 0 13 140 494 579 127 0
CDI 0 0 1 99 537 1008 388 46
VCDI 0 0 0 27 476 6708 29438 57893
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52830 21564 10048 1382 266 40 0 0
OW 51 51 157 783 427 90 0 0
VODI 0 4 35 419 586 237 5 0
ODI 0 0 2 198 491 499 79 1
CDI 0 0 0 106 584 842 443 89
VCDI 0 0 0 103 848 6381 30707 56700
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52226 26125 5729 1331 201 82 0 0
OW 52 61 101 802 339 80 0 0
VODI 0 26 99 519 673 167 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 140 582 423 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 559 1030 550 95
VCDI 0 0 0 59 458 5184 26951 62288
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50914 24551 8720 1241 185 92 2 0
OW 51 48 189 811 328 116 22 0
VODI 0 9 92 664 533 159 42 0
ODI 0 0 21 235 646 299 59 0
CDI 0 0 1 132 628 725 406 135
VCDI 0 0 0 168 1188 5126 23788 64722
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50914 24549 8731 1272 236 110 3 0
OW 51 47 190 789 297 115 22 0
VODI 0 12 83 630 507 165 34 0
ODI 0 0 18 254 605 305 64 0
CDI 0 0 1 144 628 697 408 122
VCDI 0 0 0 162 1235 5125 23788 64735

Date: 2017-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52390 24811 6601 1499 201 103 7 0
OW 51 86 253 856 377 106 32 0
VODI 0 23 112 510 638 193 45 0
ODI 0 9 36 292 656 362 59 1
CDI 0 0 32 203 556 931 411 53
VCDI 0 0 2 233 1163 6380 26976 59799
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52390 24808 6606 1608 305 116 17 0
OW 51 86 234 724 308 101 18 0
VODI 0 26 131 528 584 192 45 0
ODI 0 8 38 312 644 342 73 5
CDI 0 1 25 198 592 920 433 47
VCDI 0 0 2 223 1158 6404 26944 59801

Date: 2017-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49399 28117 6077 1749 185 42 7 0
OW 51 22 174 906 318 59 26 0
VODI 0 2 30 723 897 84 41 0
ODI 0 0 11 170 938 466 124 0
CDI 0 0 4 80 604 1810 500 35
VCDI 0 0 0 53 490 7450 31519 53885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49399 27961 5831 1939 502 95 36 0
OW 51 135 220 603 442 103 43 0
VODI 0 29 145 508 661 229 71 0
ODI 0 12 58 268 594 561 196 0
CDI 0 4 26 209 482 1450 563 53
VCDI 0 0 16 154 751 7473 31308 53867

Date: 2017-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49840 26015 6779 2624 353 39 0 0
OW 51 96 216 808 369 41 12 0
VODI 0 13 98 663 758 159 27 0
ODI 0 0 27 221 794 491 122 0
CDI 0 0 7 112 693 1688 373 48
VCDI 0 0 0 71 510 6545 33155 53230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49840 25852 6549 2782 622 72 29 0
OW 51 180 247 480 472 135 25 0
VODI 0 88 161 547 581 304 47 0
ODI 0 4 113 291 640 551 174 0
CDI 0 0 49 200 512 1646 476 39
VCDI 0 0 8 199 650 6255 32938 53239

Date: 2017-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25887 7079 2137 452 47 0 0
OW 51 111 212 819 448 66 19 0
VODI 0 34 123 557 699 227 25 0
ODI 0 0 36 236 526 403 144 1
CDI 0 0 20 130 615 1207 453 22
VCDI 0 0 1 95 498 6556 33047 54019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50046 25785 6840 2279 852 358 47 0
OW 51 100 230 500 352 174 48 0
VODI 0 118 185 503 532 287 106 0
ODI 0 24 87 276 515 489 172 1
CDI 0 5 78 140 357 885 714 76
VCDI 0 0 51 276 630 6313 32601 53965


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