Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47188 26712 10698 1629 304 34 0 0
OW 51 52 222 678 279 46 0 0
VODI 0 12 106 532 502 123 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 298 551 268 7 2
CDI 0 0 8 243 638 867 150 82
VCDI 0 0 2 323 1637 6340 27206 59220
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49386 26375 7580 2679 344 86 0 0
OW 51 49 249 623 328 115 0 0
VODI 0 11 118 512 553 233 3 0
ODI 0 1 18 353 465 352 32 0
CDI 0 0 7 253 738 1004 288 13
VCDI 0 0 3 236 1480 5321 30828 56361
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50279 26029 8385 1709 165 13 0 0
OW 51 29 158 752 295 36 0 0
VODI 0 12 74 513 659 144 1 0
ODI 0 0 38 207 959 415 23 0
CDI 0 0 7 182 886 1249 165 42
VCDI 0 0 0 150 1067 6630 27380 58344
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55709 25182 3159 1672 351 25 0 0
OW 51 59 98 762 367 84 3 0
VODI 0 39 45 452 646 274 22 0
ODI 0 21 60 156 671 514 65 0
CDI 0 13 43 95 574 1336 342 31
VCDI 0 2 51 160 448 5836 25945 61685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55709 25190 3169 1766 358 35 0 0
OW 51 49 94 652 368 79 5 0
VODI 0 39 41 461 583 232 21 0
ODI 0 16 43 174 671 507 66 0
CDI 0 12 43 85 629 1414 333 28
VCDI 0 10 66 159 448 5802 25952 61688

Date: 2017-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55209 22822 6055 1613 346 38 0 0
OW 52 47 76 825 322 125 1 0
VODI 0 25 27 523 631 227 33 0
ODI 0 12 13 153 666 399 76 0
CDI 0 3 35 108 628 1148 273 35
VCDI 0 0 38 98 395 5141 24035 64795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55209 22845 6069 1713 379 50 0 0
OW 52 29 69 740 306 113 4 0
VODI 0 22 15 508 566 239 44 0
ODI 0 10 14 155 675 387 79 0
CDI 0 3 23 94 652 1211 328 32
VCDI 0 0 54 110 410 5078 23963 64798

Date: 2017-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55282 23578 5180 1569 224 35 0 0
OW 52 87 217 911 255 63 1 0
VODI 0 2 31 474 792 146 10 0
ODI 0 4 11 144 753 382 29 0
CDI 0 3 4 79 502 1488 386 137
VCDI 0 0 3 83 390 4667 23833 65241
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55283 23649 5216 1866 428 94 0 0
OW 51 13 143 621 440 123 4 0
VODI 0 5 42 376 602 293 42 0
ODI 0 3 24 144 521 457 142 5
CDI 0 0 13 98 415 1247 449 113
VCDI 0 4 8 155 510 4567 23622 65260

Date: 2017-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57139 23572 3602 1392 229 40 0 0
OW 51 80 190 841 329 66 6 0
VODI 0 2 6 446 686 235 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 170 493 603 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 546 1160 514 51
VCDI 0 0 0 53 546 6375 30269 57182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57139 23584 3561 1524 426 100 5 0
OW 51 50 226 628 349 155 3 0
VODI 0 16 11 457 539 379 23 0
ODI 0 4 0 204 446 614 176 9
CDI 0 0 0 118 503 1085 479 87
VCDI 0 0 0 70 566 6146 30178 57137

Date: 2017-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54536 24452 5431 1450 252 48 0 0
OW 51 70 128 760 419 102 3 0
VODI 0 8 45 349 672 280 18 0
ODI 0 0 13 140 494 579 127 0
CDI 0 0 1 99 537 1008 388 46
VCDI 0 0 0 27 476 6708 29438 57893
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54536 24438 5335 1559 443 109 3 0
OW 51 72 201 554 398 168 11 0
VODI 0 12 75 400 511 367 100 0
ODI 0 8 7 186 413 520 222 9
CDI 0 0 0 100 465 784 539 221
VCDI 0 0 0 26 620 6777 29099 57709


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