Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-02-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48397 25289 11168 1507 242 51 0 0
OW 63 22 186 687 337 52 0 0
VODI 0 2 21 576 548 156 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 209 556 252 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 600 475 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 880 4284 7999 4278
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49761 23967 11000 1309 317 89 0 0
OW 51 21 176 736 317 115 0 0
VODI 0 5 26 537 482 244 7 0
ODI 0 2 6 189 507 358 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 553 692 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 583 4771 7971 4072
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48869 24810 11388 1351 141 8 0 0
OW 51 48 166 753 194 10 0 0
VODI 0 7 36 562 473 75 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 291 543 260 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 124 593 848 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 116 1186 4946 6732 4360
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47952 26201 10190 1602 254 19 0 0
OW 51 55 171 699 231 42 0 0
VODI 0 18 79 516 492 93 9 0
ODI 0 0 34 264 559 221 24 0
CDI 0 0 13 172 657 807 140 0
VCDI 0 0 5 218 1015 4353 6541 5403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47952 26202 10189 1584 262 24 0 0
OW 51 61 174 687 223 32 0 0
VODI 0 11 78 562 435 102 8 0
ODI 0 0 35 270 586 200 27 0
CDI 0 0 11 161 703 752 133 0
VCDI 0 0 5 207 999 4425 6546 5403

Date: 2017-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48200 27758 7978 1841 272 71 0 0
OW 51 73 241 590 285 86 0 0
VODI 0 10 126 410 569 170 4 0
ODI 0 0 22 262 474 304 28 0
CDI 0 0 10 179 575 887 81 0
VCDI 0 0 5 204 1071 3234 8013 5016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48200 27761 7982 1817 310 61 0 0
OW 51 73 266 571 236 98 0 0
VODI 0 7 107 471 521 169 3 0
ODI 0 0 16 270 490 253 27 0
CDI 0 0 7 163 647 866 67 0
VCDI 0 0 4 194 1042 3305 8029 5016

Date: 2017-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50865 24864 8695 1557 201 22 0 0
OW 51 24 164 806 209 45 0 0
VODI 0 2 26 580 599 113 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 206 1024 283 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 970 995 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 651 2909 8838 4178
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50865 24836 8497 1560 307 47 0 0
OW 51 42 293 612 243 89 0 0
VODI 0 11 83 555 538 201 11 0
ODI 0 1 12 288 595 239 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 170 1049 834 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 109 922 2957 8751 4178

Date: 2017-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54760 25601 3689 1614 226 14 0 0
OW 51 13 104 750 324 46 2 0
VODI 0 9 29 449 648 149 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 871 322 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 746 1030 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 554 4406 7617 4499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54760 25569 3614 1651 409 95 7 0
OW 51 39 132 562 312 128 34 0
VODI 0 9 55 518 528 165 101 0
ODI 0 1 20 158 622 222 92 0
CDI 0 5 1 106 739 862 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 102 759 4495 7456 4499

Date: 2017-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56178 21939 5604 1683 276 24 1 0
OW 52 31 81 779 360 80 4 0
VODI 0 5 27 450 676 207 32 0
ODI 0 0 5 131 599 418 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 573 895 345 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 266 3040 9305 4882
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56179 21952 5547 1669 434 116 8 0
OW 51 11 128 592 406 169 35 0
VODI 0 11 41 544 476 223 134 0
ODI 0 1 1 203 448 339 133 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 615 975 261 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 371 2842 9189 4882


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