Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48397 25383 11390 1529 242 51 0 0
OW 63 23 209 735 338 69 0 0
VODI 0 2 45 700 554 176 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 315 594 284 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 197 744 666 248 49
VCDI 0 0 0 124 1441 7410 27689 57367
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49761 24144 11078 1353 317 89 0 0
OW 51 22 183 769 317 116 2 0
VODI 0 5 26 575 493 248 29 0
ODI 0 2 6 260 551 369 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 130 677 766 255 35
VCDI 0 0 0 29 757 6886 25188 61516
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48869 25017 11465 1383 141 8 0 0
OW 51 49 181 783 195 10 0 0
VODI 0 8 39 602 478 75 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 326 561 279 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 174 703 962 197 25
VCDI 0 0 0 170 1526 7872 23979 60918
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47952 26387 10328 1615 254 19 0 0
OW 51 62 201 715 231 42 0 0
VODI 0 18 98 560 496 93 9 0
ODI 0 0 39 298 576 226 24 0
CDI 0 0 13 222 741 881 205 85
VCDI 0 0 5 246 1329 7168 23595 62264
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47952 26389 10329 1600 262 24 0 0
OW 51 67 201 704 223 32 0 0
VODI 0 11 98 604 441 102 8 0
ODI 0 0 40 307 610 204 27 0
CDI 0 0 11 210 794 824 186 76
VCDI 0 0 5 231 1297 7243 23612 62273

Date: 2017-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48200 28080 8006 1849 272 71 0 0
OW 51 89 275 601 285 86 0 0
VODI 0 11 162 444 570 170 4 0
ODI 0 0 32 311 479 319 28 0
CDI 0 0 10 254 620 998 159 42
VCDI 0 0 5 352 1450 5425 28975 58363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48200 28085 8014 1828 310 61 0 0
OW 51 88 297 583 236 98 0 0
VODI 0 7 143 506 525 169 3 0
ODI 0 0 25 323 501 265 27 0
CDI 0 0 7 264 698 982 132 56
VCDI 0 0 4 307 1406 5494 29004 58349

Date: 2017-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50865 25090 8837 1574 201 22 0 0
OW 51 24 198 861 209 45 0 0
VODI 0 2 27 688 615 113 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 306 1067 321 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 1158 1282 119 16
VCDI 0 0 0 103 869 5771 30374 56118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50865 25061 8602 1569 307 47 0 0
OW 51 43 337 634 243 89 0 0
VODI 0 11 111 613 546 201 11 0
ODI 0 1 12 363 613 261 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 250 1125 1065 149 34
VCDI 0 0 0 207 1285 5891 30306 56100

Date: 2017-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54760 25954 3710 1622 227 14 0 0
OW 51 50 114 787 331 46 2 0
VODI 0 40 63 491 665 152 18 0
ODI 0 15 48 158 916 347 66 0
CDI 0 1 48 109 824 1177 245 64
VCDI 0 0 18 182 698 7341 25068 60626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54760 25869 3625 1652 409 95 7 0
OW 51 76 139 569 313 128 34 0
VODI 0 49 61 529 534 167 101 0
ODI 0 36 26 187 641 228 94 0
CDI 0 23 30 138 773 948 312 75
VCDI 0 7 120 274 991 7511 24851 60615

Date: 2017-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56178 22264 5639 1688 276 24 1 0
OW 52 50 95 791 360 81 4 0
VODI 0 11 59 470 689 210 32 0
ODI 0 1 43 172 640 436 73 0
CDI 0 0 63 92 614 997 422 36
VCDI 0 0 46 129 380 4870 24202 64858
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56179 22263 5572 1671 434 116 8 0
OW 51 32 143 598 406 170 35 0
VODI 0 20 71 559 476 232 134 0
ODI 0 9 23 220 457 358 133 0
CDI 0 2 52 103 672 1045 280 108
VCDI 0 0 84 191 514 4697 24144 64786


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