Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51531 27808 6863 1610 261 21 6 0
OW 62 92 237 723 244 39 12 0
VODI 0 27 119 740 509 96 21 0
ODI 0 11 35 314 677 154 32 0
CDI 0 4 21 197 911 1086 129 80
VCDI 0 0 22 139 1314 8997 23856 58048
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48918 27051 9520 1987 357 32 5 0
OW 62 105 258 678 337 56 8 0
VODI 0 69 138 755 494 179 10 0
ODI 0 20 63 417 644 258 19 1
CDI 0 12 31 179 872 1162 273 37
VCDI 0 5 26 223 1022 9139 26579 55047
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53492 20967 10454 2059 245 13 0 0
OW 63 51 142 754 307 21 1 0
VODI 0 26 62 650 650 76 6 0
ODI 0 12 47 462 1080 209 21 0
CDI 0 0 26 202 1021 1039 225 46
VCDI 0 0 0 103 993 10174 28334 53015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50912 24602 9559 1662 235 18 0 0
OW 63 43 216 774 290 35 0 0
VODI 0 31 27 695 597 130 1 0
ODI 0 7 1 328 623 234 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 192 949 836 214 53
VCDI 0 0 0 192 921 8238 29763 54579
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50912 24598 9570 1679 268 19 0 0
OW 63 52 191 750 258 44 0 0
VODI 0 26 41 688 583 143 2 0
ODI 0 7 1 343 651 274 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 204 952 799 211 53
VCDI 0 0 0 179 903 8212 29754 54579

Date: 2017-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50827 25754 8551 1415 280 79 0 0
OW 64 13 126 766 354 86 2 0
VODI 0 1 14 616 571 233 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 249 612 302 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 692 629 257 38
VCDI 0 0 0 38 933 7136 27606 58630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50828 25748 8482 1470 335 110 0 0
OW 63 19 173 700 317 86 1 0
VODI 0 1 36 625 608 238 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 256 615 336 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 679 668 270 37
VCDI 0 0 0 39 888 7027 27587 58631

Date: 2017-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50997 26480 7914 1399 150 22 0 0
OW 51 30 80 830 237 41 0 0
VODI 0 5 13 528 613 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 839 295 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 740 1050 126 33
VCDI 0 0 0 61 892 7784 22821 62709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50997 26362 7737 1390 268 70 0 0
OW 51 113 182 615 298 68 0 0
VODI 0 30 76 589 565 282 13 0
ODI 0 7 12 234 577 335 30 0
CDI 0 3 0 116 683 830 148 72
VCDI 0 0 0 98 1080 7690 22757 62670

Date: 2017-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48977 25949 10136 1423 186 2 0 0
OW 51 37 198 720 229 19 0 0
VODI 0 27 67 607 464 101 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 301 518 296 9 0
CDI 0 0 6 228 635 1094 236 45
VCDI 0 0 6 213 1615 8413 22680 61534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48977 25840 9827 1381 303 24 0 0
OW 51 99 332 585 234 62 0 0
VODI 0 63 190 601 398 221 2 0
ODI 0 10 47 406 456 355 22 0
CDI 0 1 39 248 619 893 239 88
VCDI 0 0 4 271 1637 8370 22662 61491

Date: 2017-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47188 26712 10698 1629 304 34 0 0
OW 51 52 222 678 279 46 0 0
VODI 0 12 106 532 502 123 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 298 551 268 7 2
CDI 0 0 8 243 638 867 150 82
VCDI 0 0 2 323 1637 6340 27206 59220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47188 26554 10398 1619 448 67 0 0
OW 51 160 238 481 303 102 0 0
VODI 0 53 270 504 443 194 1 0
ODI 0 9 108 335 393 337 13 0
CDI 0 0 52 326 610 694 156 184
VCDI 0 0 8 438 1714 6284 27193 59120


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