Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51925 26240 7535 1699 395 74 0 0
OW 62 30 164 576 292 50 1 0
VODI 0 2 91 510 592 143 22 0
ODI 0 0 54 258 812 352 50 0
CDI 0 0 25 230 951 1328 235 17
VCDI 0 0 20 276 1003 5823 25316 59895
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55236 21572 9380 1326 295 15 0 0
OW 63 54 233 653 196 57 0 0
VODI 0 20 137 649 354 97 4 0
ODI 0 8 60 347 518 159 19 7
CDI 0 3 29 258 992 695 255 53
VCDI 0 0 21 310 1533 5271 23630 62539
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56513 21868 8278 1285 219 8 0 0
OW 62 49 186 740 184 30 0 0
VODI 0 15 92 807 358 103 6 0
ODI 0 1 35 364 810 172 23 0
CDI 0 1 11 235 1024 757 89 55
VCDI 0 0 7 118 1117 7283 24029 60114
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56073 25385 4744 1574 284 20 1 0
OW 62 64 199 733 204 48 9 0
VODI 0 15 112 709 510 109 18 0
ODI 0 2 29 318 731 135 30 0
CDI 0 0 14 234 938 1126 201 32
VCDI 0 0 8 112 1149 8673 25624 56819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56073 25373 4747 1602 292 22 2 0
OW 62 73 192 691 208 36 3 0
VODI 0 17 115 707 508 120 21 0
ODI 0 3 28 317 725 165 28 0
CDI 0 0 17 235 909 1130 209 41
VCDI 0 0 7 128 1174 8638 25620 56810

Date: 2017-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49811 29081 6897 2029 294 21 7 0
OW 62 91 237 731 303 20 10 0
VODI 0 58 135 772 497 104 12 0
ODI 0 12 50 354 627 195 25 0
CDI 0 4 28 186 790 1179 205 65
VCDI 0 1 24 175 1004 8799 23839 58314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49811 29043 6858 2095 295 18 7 0
OW 62 106 231 654 279 22 5 0
VODI 0 74 159 686 532 94 15 0
ODI 0 18 59 375 571 220 19 0
CDI 0 5 39 223 807 1093 201 62
VCDI 0 1 25 214 1031 8871 23851 58317

Date: 2017-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50594 24737 9907 1917 272 26 0 0
OW 62 43 225 830 301 33 3 0
VODI 0 13 198 921 621 99 9 0
ODI 0 2 18 318 1122 233 14 0
CDI 0 0 7 105 884 1505 212 39
VCDI 0 0 0 98 733 9842 28411 52694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50593 24668 9750 2021 463 61 7 0
OW 63 77 256 560 327 77 4 0
VODI 0 35 180 636 561 179 5 0
ODI 0 15 93 476 597 287 14 0
CDI 0 0 49 250 884 971 222 39
VCDI 0 0 27 246 1101 10163 28397 52694

Date: 2017-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53822 22169 8856 1903 296 21 0 0
OW 63 64 179 747 319 31 0 0
VODI 0 14 47 667 603 109 2 0
ODI 0 1 12 386 756 194 26 0
CDI 0 1 10 275 1126 931 202 31
VCDI 0 0 6 146 1008 8951 29706 53368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53822 22127 8803 1986 461 53 0 0
OW 63 73 194 603 401 66 6 0
VODI 0 35 65 555 578 181 15 0
ODI 0 13 18 404 615 252 40 0
CDI 0 1 11 307 956 875 211 41
VCDI 0 0 19 269 1097 8810 29664 53358

Date: 2017-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48397 25383 11390 1529 242 51 0 0
OW 63 23 209 735 338 69 0 0
VODI 0 2 45 700 554 176 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 315 594 284 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 197 744 666 248 49
VCDI 0 0 0 124 1441 7410 27689 57367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48397 25345 11307 1542 453 102 0 0
OW 63 58 233 621 379 140 0 0
VODI 0 4 84 579 489 264 0 0
ODI 0 1 17 374 453 302 32 0
CDI 0 0 5 241 719 766 315 14
VCDI 0 0 0 243 1420 7082 27602 57402


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