Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51655 25214 10692 1266 171 3 0 0
OW 60 93 329 702 201 16 0 0
VODI 0 54 164 665 422 84 3 0
ODI 0 42 103 706 544 154 17 3
CDI 0 22 136 625 780 662 194 94
VCDI 0 6 71 588 1825 8850 30417 49415
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52663 25859 8344 1445 232 39 0 0
OW 60 101 339 705 251 34 0 0
VODI 0 56 151 687 534 94 5 0
ODI 0 18 122 711 747 227 50 0
CDI 0 6 106 618 845 649 249 7
VCDI 0 0 86 549 1696 6654 30328 51781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50422 24037 11880 1833 300 39 0 0
OW 60 62 260 908 291 18 0 0
VODI 0 29 219 870 607 47 30 0
ODI 0 1 25 496 870 230 32 0
CDI 0 0 17 246 892 950 281 24
VCDI 0 0 3 154 1514 6358 27130 55913
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54019 22981 8691 1717 488 31 0 0
OW 62 24 175 535 345 37 0 0
VODI 0 6 87 511 820 167 17 0
ODI 0 0 23 322 816 331 44 0
CDI 0 0 12 229 959 1302 203 11
VCDI 0 0 7 213 836 6356 28444 56227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54019 22983 8694 1723 500 39 0 0
OW 62 22 167 531 327 30 1 0
VODI 0 6 89 508 777 174 11 0
ODI 0 0 22 316 924 345 46 0
CDI 0 0 14 232 894 1327 194 10
VCDI 0 0 9 217 842 6309 28456 56228

Date: 2017-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56180 21083 8653 1473 350 51 0 0
OW 63 75 158 654 228 42 5 0
VODI 0 22 113 589 429 102 18 0
ODI 0 7 77 341 647 211 67 0
CDI 0 2 38 248 1025 859 304 31
VCDI 0 0 37 347 1410 4978 25151 60980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56180 21087 8647 1477 360 52 1 0
OW 63 65 153 646 220 32 3 0
VODI 0 27 122 583 436 102 16 0
ODI 0 7 69 358 623 236 70 0
CDI 0 3 42 224 1008 932 360 26
VCDI 0 0 43 364 1442 4889 25095 60985

Date: 2017-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57172 24303 4867 1452 275 22 0 0
OW 62 54 182 741 173 44 0 0
VODI 0 17 76 726 442 102 3 0
ODI 0 0 36 284 997 198 7 0
CDI 0 0 13 205 1020 909 128 27
VCDI 0 0 3 127 913 5528 22958 62982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57171 24197 4614 1474 371 58 0 0
OW 63 100 252 541 191 72 2 0
VODI 0 58 177 563 412 123 7 0
ODI 0 18 60 362 497 238 16 0
CDI 0 1 49 290 957 772 200 38
VCDI 0 0 25 305 1392 5540 22871 62971

Date: 2017-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54719 26040 5644 1419 278 18 0 0
OW 62 70 225 687 163 69 2 0
VODI 0 23 130 712 442 130 9 0
ODI 0 5 33 319 784 160 25 0
CDI 0 0 14 225 943 934 168 22
VCDI 0 0 12 136 1152 8093 26991 56190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54718 25928 5425 1355 377 71 0 0
OW 63 120 278 516 129 103 5 0
VODI 0 67 178 622 346 130 20 0
ODI 0 14 90 386 512 199 27 0
CDI 0 8 51 318 1015 787 152 25
VCDI 0 1 36 301 1383 8114 26991 56187

Date: 2017-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51531 27808 6863 1610 261 21 6 0
OW 62 92 237 723 244 39 12 0
VODI 0 27 119 740 509 96 21 0
ODI 0 11 35 314 677 154 32 0
CDI 0 4 21 197 911 1086 129 80
VCDI 0 0 22 139 1314 8997 23856 58048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51531 27696 6626 1662 399 57 4 0
OW 62 105 264 532 294 52 22 0
VODI 0 66 170 582 554 115 34 0
ODI 0 24 79 363 579 269 115 0
CDI 0 24 70 275 749 953 274 52
VCDI 0 27 88 309 1341 8947 23607 58076


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