Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-01-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49494 29865 8848 1888 299 98 1 0
OW 57 90 315 668 234 42 5 0
VODI 0 48 253 685 471 72 7 0
ODI 0 21 133 421 722 183 9 0
CDI 0 21 160 383 1133 829 59 76
VCDI 0 0 39 343 1717 10171 25537 51651
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54957 26770 6658 1518 215 81 0 0
OW 60 117 341 641 239 11 9 0
VODI 0 96 268 721 496 25 12 0
ODI 0 35 122 467 616 130 10 0
CDI 0 23 148 382 955 546 107 69
VCDI 0 0 16 346 1765 9877 30272 47927
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53927 24660 9754 1822 267 64 0 0
OW 56 163 441 925 250 25 0 0
VODI 0 22 177 935 574 47 5 0
ODI 0 0 19 406 840 165 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 221 1000 1076 114 45
VCDI 0 0 0 100 1376 11069 29746 46743
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53193 24346 9194 2090 371 123 4 0
OW 57 251 396 916 241 15 0 0
VODI 0 104 501 1018 493 63 0 0
ODI 0 1 84 727 842 218 8 0
CDI 0 0 27 412 1390 1241 163 72
VCDI 0 0 5 301 2275 8238 26779 50889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53193 24402 9268 2176 387 122 4 0
OW 57 203 378 806 216 16 0 0
VODI 0 96 438 1038 510 65 0 0
ODI 0 1 83 720 820 224 7 0
CDI 0 0 33 417 1372 1145 151 77
VCDI 0 0 7 307 2307 8326 26792 50884

Date: 2017-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52789 23241 10646 1940 192 43 0 0
OW 60 52 307 814 250 8 0 0
VODI 0 70 280 891 517 44 0 0
ODI 0 50 253 775 740 227 19 0
CDI 0 0 50 381 1192 1166 276 41
VCDI 0 0 15 247 1375 8279 29836 49982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52789 23228 10697 1977 190 42 0 0
OW 60 69 305 832 221 5 0 0
VODI 0 80 285 860 526 39 0 0
ODI 0 36 205 806 719 211 18 0
CDI 0 0 44 337 1204 1186 266 36
VCDI 0 0 15 236 1406 8284 29847 49987

Date: 2017-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55509 22810 8930 1858 171 24 0 0
OW 60 14 86 918 253 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 960 660 41 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 399 1148 159 10 1
CDI 0 0 0 74 1045 1381 232 43
VCDI 0 0 0 72 654 7161 27735 54617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55509 22745 8765 1678 253 28 0 0
OW 60 73 166 698 301 30 0 0
VODI 0 6 55 759 482 63 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 515 766 214 16 0
CDI 0 0 16 447 1054 1035 284 37
VCDI 0 0 3 184 1075 7409 27677 54624

Date: 2017-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50227 27440 10264 1191 130 3 0 0
OW 60 52 296 719 176 15 0 0
VODI 0 25 140 816 395 55 0 0
ODI 0 2 58 590 769 128 7 2
CDI 0 0 15 345 1105 621 191 58
VCDI 0 0 8 216 1260 8373 28721 52575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50227 27292 10049 1216 217 17 0 0
OW 60 148 341 653 135 34 0 0
VODI 0 38 198 662 367 70 0 0
ODI 0 20 80 399 584 154 0 1
CDI 0 15 37 381 1002 731 155 59
VCDI 0 6 76 566 1530 8189 28764 52575

Date: 2017-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51655 25214 10692 1266 171 3 0 0
OW 60 93 329 702 201 16 0 0
VODI 0 54 164 665 422 84 3 0
ODI 0 42 103 706 544 154 17 3
CDI 0 22 136 625 780 662 194 94
VCDI 0 6 71 588 1825 8850 30417 49415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51655 25114 10573 1313 292 20 0 0
OW 60 120 373 560 249 40 0 0
VODI 0 78 177 722 363 80 2 0
ODI 0 41 90 524 489 143 16 3
CDI 0 33 80 507 670 537 213 18
VCDI 0 45 202 926 1880 8949 30400 49491


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