Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-01-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49065 24283 16234 994 210 136 4 0
OW 58 23 242 633 45 25 2 0
VODI 0 2 91 694 225 21 1 0
ODI 0 0 11 362 469 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 243 676 155 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 138 1331 4097 6850 1750
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50988 26920 10609 1641 295 144 1 0
OW 56 35 170 480 222 29 0 0
VODI 0 12 73 527 390 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 275 477 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 154 734 279 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 122 1161 3502 8196 1425
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49673 23621 15312 1409 247 76 0 0
OW 56 23 99 590 186 21 0 0
VODI 0 4 32 414 420 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 209 564 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 690 444 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 733 4113 8130 1811
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49470 28251 10220 1645 250 90 3 0
OW 67 100 171 547 159 26 4 0
VODI 0 30 94 508 349 30 0 0
ODI 0 22 47 348 489 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 155 899 228 2 0
VCDI 0 0 1 130 933 3958 8873 928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49470 28260 10233 1687 259 80 3 0
OW 67 90 149 518 157 35 4 0
VODI 0 37 103 478 326 29 0 0
ODI 0 16 48 355 513 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 173 847 252 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 122 977 3944 8874 928

Date: 2017-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51651 23427 12740 1435 215 84 2 0
OW 59 74 243 590 110 39 0 0
VODI 0 2 132 510 370 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 243 506 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 99 864 295 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 842 3564 8971 1799
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51650 23446 12782 1473 210 72 2 0
OW 60 55 236 579 113 35 0 0
VODI 0 2 105 504 393 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 234 453 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 93 774 299 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 964 3581 8971 1799

Date: 2017-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55595 24738 7149 1681 240 65 0 0
OW 56 16 103 655 219 27 2 0
VODI 0 0 14 529 460 40 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 801 112 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 625 601 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 500 4720 8189 1692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55591 24720 7019 1714 329 81 0 0
OW 60 32 166 510 243 31 8 0
VODI 0 2 62 468 463 59 18 0
ODI 0 0 19 242 474 125 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 691 457 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 645 4812 8176 1692

Date: 2017-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55289 20308 11197 1711 328 84 0 0
OW 57 81 296 489 201 20 0 0
VODI 0 29 194 434 418 43 0 0
ODI 0 3 42 399 462 115 1 0
CDI 0 0 3 226 737 508 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 84 1075 4965 8447 819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55285 20165 11016 1745 371 86 0 0
OW 61 168 297 383 227 34 0 0
VODI 0 66 253 349 386 76 0 0
ODI 0 21 130 323 430 115 1 0
CDI 0 1 33 378 648 497 29 0
VCDI 0 0 3 165 1159 4927 8453 819

Date: 2017-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52719 21942 10959 2208 260 84 0 0
OW 60 25 141 694 237 19 0 0
VODI 0 2 90 517 510 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 61 317 545 140 1 0
CDI 0 0 32 157 857 777 33 0
VCDI 0 0 11 179 1025 4632 8348 1477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52719 21918 10836 2294 396 80 0 0
OW 60 43 191 478 356 64 0 0
VODI 0 6 111 507 479 118 0 0
ODI 0 2 77 328 510 186 0 0
CDI 0 0 63 259 625 719 22 0
VCDI 0 0 16 206 1068 4526 8360 1477


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