Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-01-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49065 24373 16602 1024 210 136 4 0
OW 58 23 306 704 52 25 2 0
VODI 0 2 125 822 377 49 1 0
ODI 0 0 26 442 758 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 323 1172 560 47 30
VCDI 0 0 0 172 1831 12028 28470 47135
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50988 27234 10788 1698 298 144 1 0
OW 56 53 305 545 247 29 0 0
VODI 0 25 241 766 471 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 166 567 659 161 0 0
CDI 0 0 48 525 994 806 71 15
VCDI 0 0 85 506 2345 11166 32345 42640
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49673 23839 15846 1506 251 76 0 0
OW 56 41 237 765 207 21 0 0
VODI 0 7 212 797 515 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 152 593 708 248 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 310 979 1021 38 55
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1296 9756 25796 51909
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49470 28759 10324 1718 265 90 3 0
OW 67 159 251 651 179 28 4 0
VODI 0 68 278 746 391 42 0 0
ODI 0 47 165 602 614 109 4 0
CDI 0 13 146 473 1176 612 62 101
VCDI 0 0 16 334 1822 11074 28772 47413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49470 28777 10346 1763 267 80 3 0
OW 67 149 219 614 183 35 4 0
VODI 0 67 278 715 365 47 0 0
ODI 0 41 185 634 643 109 5 0
CDI 0 12 133 441 1105 614 68 113
VCDI 0 0 19 357 1884 11070 28765 47401

Date: 2017-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51651 23882 12896 1527 225 84 2 0
OW 59 118 370 693 173 41 0 0
VODI 0 31 295 759 430 67 0 0
ODI 0 9 119 490 576 162 0 0
CDI 0 3 80 485 1135 671 52 73
VCDI 0 0 8 326 1846 9691 28696 49323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51650 23907 12938 1568 228 72 2 0
OW 60 92 338 657 150 40 0 0
VODI 0 33 272 691 457 88 0 0
ODI 0 7 122 507 518 131 0 0
CDI 0 4 88 443 983 636 55 64
VCDI 0 0 10 414 2049 9749 28693 49332

Date: 2017-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55599 25402 7590 1794 240 65 0 0
OW 56 158 328 976 264 27 2 0
VODI 0 8 69 964 604 40 11 0
ODI 0 1 7 255 1037 156 15 0
CDI 0 0 1 133 903 1035 100 17
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1123 10232 28627 49140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55595 25182 7169 1797 331 81 0 0
OW 60 86 237 591 257 31 8 0
VODI 0 129 248 584 543 63 18 0
ODI 0 94 129 417 557 152 10 0
CDI 0 62 150 389 853 670 94 45
VCDI 0 16 62 413 1630 10558 28625 49112

Date: 2017-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55289 21044 11438 1775 328 84 0 0
OW 57 322 622 756 203 20 0 0
VODI 0 81 541 923 493 44 0 0
ODI 0 4 59 621 754 225 2 0
CDI 0 0 4 409 1186 1032 124 56
VCDI 0 0 0 237 2170 10272 27230 48643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55285 20637 11136 1800 371 86 0 0
OW 61 290 327 460 227 34 0 0
VODI 0 312 494 493 417 76 0 0
ODI 0 141 315 527 572 158 2 0
CDI 0 66 229 654 963 761 95 66
VCDI 0 5 163 787 2584 10562 27259 48633

Date: 2017-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52719 22412 11170 2259 260 84 0 0
OW 60 100 313 862 243 19 0 0
VODI 0 196 284 1014 566 41 0 0
ODI 0 62 145 757 886 195 16 0
CDI 0 0 32 259 1415 1402 186 58
VCDI 0 0 11 282 1897 9348 29518 47977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52719 22333 10925 2343 397 80 0 0
OW 60 81 285 542 380 64 0 0
VODI 0 178 345 703 539 121 0 0
ODI 0 131 196 583 647 219 0 0
CDI 0 47 180 630 962 941 110 57
VCDI 0 0 24 632 2342 9664 29610 47978


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