Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 541 846 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 293 76 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 176 433 198 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 112 359 219 35 1 0 0
CDI 0 43 288 222 184 86 68 9
VCDI 0 23 473 801 1349 3787 11636 9690
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 740 382 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 107 86 156 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 147 155 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 86 287 163 120 2 0 1
CDI 0 133 381 227 168 93 18 31
VCDI 0 54 537 973 738 2816 9457 13750
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 594 522 302 32 0 0 0
OW 0 24 72 136 53 3 0 0
VODI 0 18 95 233 99 23 0 0
ODI 0 13 83 273 116 30 0 0
CDI 0 9 83 536 315 118 34 13
VCDI 0 0 41 506 1050 3239 6496 16921
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 543 156 313 62 2 0 0
OW 0 42 51 113 91 5 0 0
VODI 0 10 30 121 106 23 0 0
ODI 0 5 25 65 124 45 0 0
CDI 0 1 17 132 263 117 26 22
VCDI 0 0 9 314 1481 3548 9443 14774
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 539 161 328 71 2 0 0
OW 0 43 47 115 83 6 0 0
VODI 0 12 32 120 108 20 0 0
ODI 0 6 28 58 138 33 0 0
CDI 0 1 15 122 259 130 22 9
VCDI 0 0 5 315 1468 3549 9447 14787

Date: 2016-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 423 126 196 65 0 0 0
OW 0 10 42 86 102 5 0 0
VODI 0 3 50 93 121 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 40 70 115 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 40 34 151 197 29 18
VCDI 0 0 19 144 1561 3339 8481 16439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 419 118 209 92 0 0 0
OW 0 14 46 79 91 8 0 0
VODI 0 3 53 128 130 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 38 127 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 44 30 157 187 26 14
VCDI 0 0 18 139 1518 3350 8484 16443

Date: 2017-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 396 95 101 34 0 0 0
OW 0 7 33 113 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 65 154 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 57 187 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 59 229 250 0 35
VCDI 0 0 0 59 590 4341 5242 19857
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 367 53 117 107 3 0 0
OW 0 23 21 71 107 17 0 0
VODI 0 11 28 63 146 25 0 0
ODI 0 2 22 43 135 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 34 191 202 0 15
VCDI 0 0 8 126 599 4347 5242 19877

Date: 2017-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 339 79 64 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 16 50 34 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 60 138 65 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 83 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 92 230 0 52
VCDI 0 0 0 29 255 3898 6223 20148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 313 45 33 34 18 0 0
OW 0 14 17 52 101 55 0 0
VODI 0 10 20 53 73 81 0 0
ODI 0 2 12 44 57 110 0 1
CDI 0 0 9 60 88 241 17 57
VCDI 0 0 0 84 260 3770 6206 20142

Date: 2017-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 90 368 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 64 40 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 103 82 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 70 176 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 66 261 191 29 29
VCDI 0 0 0 33 236 3041 8011 19071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 87 247 21 0 8 0 0
OW 0 3 65 35 30 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 65 61 136 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 51 45 102 51 4 0
CDI 0 0 41 132 251 135 63 5
VCDI 0 0 16 48 240 3032 7973 19095


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