Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 955 424 90 9 0 0 0
OW 0 53 154 148 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 228 269 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 185 328 63 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 50 256 106 22 4 0
VCDI 0 1 85 562 738 3258 9567 19259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 583 148 72 9 0 0 0
OW 0 107 19 26 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 169 113 21 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 70 159 172 39 4 0 0
CDI 0 100 258 331 56 19 10 0
VCDI 0 20 429 1031 819 3262 9561 19259

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 615 2418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 613 2416

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 162 1447 8373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 162 1447 8373

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 24 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 121 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 453 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 274 581 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1093 2202 764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 12 0 3 0 0
OW 0 0 0 56 24 31 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 230 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 214 268 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 209 261 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 1093 2138 764

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 457 6773
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 458 6773

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 225 1590 3420
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 225 1588 3417

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 510 440 219 3 0 0 0
OW 0 35 33 114 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 84 92 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 87 131 133 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 108 144 115 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 1647 2068 53
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 394 344 153 2 0 0 0
OW 0 74 70 92 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 60 70 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 65 71 85 18 0 0
CDI 0 19 63 67 92 125 19 0
VCDI 0 2 69 211 218 1630 2072 53

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2110 7865 923 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 63 48 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 29 42 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 0 10 24 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 3 20 9 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 10 13 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2110 7593 797 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 22 51 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 31 34 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 45 49 7 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 63 4 21 8 0 0
VCDI 0 26 53 26 17 14 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1145 4453 3401 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 66 59 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 93 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 87 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 85 8 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 172 643 1269 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1145 4427 3286 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 81 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 83 54 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 47 70 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 101 47 10 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 228 641 1266 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5060 5639 1684 252 100 63 4 0
OW 0 0 1 33 6 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 17 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 31 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5060 5639 1681 241 98 61 4 0
OW 0 0 4 37 8 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 29 20 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 13 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 27 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 57 118 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 49 35 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 78 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 84 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 40 64 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 863 2969 1352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 57 152 76 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 15 65 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 55 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 20 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 15 62 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 48 824 2970 1352

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 117 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 77 861 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 2371 4880 42
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 8 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 52 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 52 175 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 71 518 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 2593 4829 42

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6272 6269 4354 344 8 0 0 0
OW 0 5 48 311 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 196 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 127 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 184 127 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 259 1262 185 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6272 6268 4305 291 12 0 0 0
OW 0 6 86 273 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 11 209 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 106 8 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 160 82 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 335 1299 173 0


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