Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62587 25750 3492 1045 193 46 0 0
OW 46 77 83 416 94 9 0 0
VODI 0 10 47 377 205 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 201 274 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 119 391 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 755 4023 6425 2083
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58834 26468 6024 1241 213 89 0 0
OW 46 92 141 448 76 9 0 0
VODI 0 21 70 478 189 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 285 254 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 208 393 123 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 100 927 3990 7127 1176
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52403 27985 11380 1120 200 94 1 0
OW 49 104 260 382 93 7 0 0
VODI 0 46 166 427 138 11 0 0
ODI 0 14 54 266 236 24 0 0
CDI 0 6 15 243 412 59 4 0
VCDI 0 0 21 216 693 4959 6420 592
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55712 27421 8210 1124 227 104 20 0
OW 51 438 163 341 104 29 0 0
VODI 0 160 164 308 203 13 0 0
ODI 0 42 88 238 224 25 0 0
CDI 0 49 65 181 298 114 1 0
VCDI 0 95 54 198 642 5217 6604 173
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55712 27655 8236 1152 233 109 20 0
OW 51 239 163 352 94 20 0 0
VODI 0 126 160 291 205 16 0 0
ODI 0 47 94 221 224 24 0 0
CDI 0 46 40 152 281 115 0 0
VCDI 0 92 51 222 661 5218 6605 173

Date: 2016-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58094 23809 8868 1181 253 86 1 0
OW 55 482 152 379 151 18 0 0
VODI 0 257 167 342 220 15 0 0
ODI 0 59 158 229 208 53 0 0
CDI 0 60 43 220 266 129 5 0
VCDI 0 53 75 225 617 4202 7350 618
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58094 23990 8874 1221 270 86 1 0
OW 55 282 136 350 133 15 0 0
VODI 0 250 187 332 218 25 0 0
ODI 0 73 136 228 203 56 0 0
CDI 0 54 49 181 280 113 3 0
VCDI 0 71 81 264 611 4208 7352 618

Date: 2016-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55242 25978 10670 868 128 63 4 0
OW 51 54 217 613 122 8 0 0
VODI 0 22 110 489 236 23 0 0
ODI 0 8 12 230 325 43 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 129 392 109 14 0
VCDI 0 2 0 86 560 4000 7604 686
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55241 25407 10227 791 195 65 4 0
OW 52 263 201 413 125 16 0 0
VODI 0 277 205 331 198 36 0 0
ODI 0 100 193 292 186 52 0 0
CDI 0 5 106 290 280 111 23 0
VCDI 0 14 77 298 779 3966 7595 686

Date: 2016-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52864 27595 10587 1031 147 30 0 0
OW 54 62 248 521 172 12 0 0
VODI 0 12 127 529 445 24 0 0
ODI 0 5 35 304 404 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 135 581 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 606 4629 7605 133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52863 27259 10175 984 194 35 0 0
OW 55 197 262 373 162 20 0 0
VODI 0 178 260 297 354 43 0 0
ODI 0 36 172 300 264 62 0 0
CDI 0 2 65 265 435 135 2 0
VCDI 0 2 63 308 946 4596 7603 133

Date: 2016-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53096 27868 9306 1156 172 84 9 0
OW 54 42 313 499 73 8 0 0
VODI 0 6 196 537 380 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 420 455 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 289 652 139 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 794 3905 7112 1340
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53096 27686 8945 1077 212 72 8 0
OW 54 125 270 401 137 30 1 0
VODI 0 67 326 511 335 69 0 0
ODI 0 33 184 300 308 82 7 0
CDI 0 5 90 359 534 170 56 0
VCDI 0 0 27 352 1000 3778 7053 1340


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