Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 823 462 252 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 61 265 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 23 246 161 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 106 246 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 294 212 58 70
VCDI 0 0 0 20 316 1366 8931 17996
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 524 453 336 1 0 0 0
OW 0 7 39 282 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 245 143 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 256 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 394 138 5 7
VCDI 0 0 0 2 330 1829 7181 19775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 139 1165 282 2 0 0 0
OW 0 1 112 239 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 327 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 262 139 0 4 1
CDI 0 0 0 165 401 39 63 84
VCDI 0 0 0 76 931 2682 9060 15840
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 254 1168 157 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 231 141 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 162 268 235 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 42 230 255 65 5 3 1
CDI 0 8 178 339 115 63 58 38
VCDI 0 4 179 780 1470 4002 10934 10571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 254 1172 176 0 0 0 0
OW 0 95 242 144 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 243 236 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 47 214 256 68 7 3 2
CDI 0 8 193 296 124 56 48 33
VCDI 0 4 190 799 1452 4007 10944 10575

Date: 2016-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 697 586 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 178 99 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 316 182 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 199 350 190 73 0 2 0
CDI 0 92 416 144 192 105 40 5
VCDI 0 87 608 740 1018 3552 11614 10358
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 709 604 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 154 112 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 242 180 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 198 335 186 89 4 2 0
CDI 0 87 381 133 219 139 45 8
VCDI 0 112 738 733 967 3514 11609 10355

Date: 2016-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 807 670 243 3 0 0 0
OW 0 78 148 149 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 264 240 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 268 390 155 11 0 0
CDI 0 3 77 324 175 125 52 16
VCDI 0 0 85 531 768 2887 7205 16186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 591 448 169 2 0 0 0
OW 0 96 81 109 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 93 93 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 127 132 108 18 0 0
CDI 0 119 289 257 114 133 50 19
VCDI 0 34 474 1117 899 2872 7207 16183

Date: 2016-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 661 215 345 53 0 0 0
OW 0 31 44 108 70 4 0 0
VODI 0 14 30 138 108 26 0 0
ODI 0 10 25 175 132 36 0 0
CDI 0 6 20 314 343 115 16 15
VCDI 0 0 14 443 1383 3455 7800 15933
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 566 144 213 29 0 0 0
OW 0 69 49 116 66 1 0 0
VODI 0 41 54 118 92 21 0 0
ODI 0 23 36 82 92 48 0 0
CDI 0 18 34 212 190 168 25 23
VCDI 0 5 31 782 1620 3398 7791 15925

Date: 2016-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 471 113 276 69 0 0 0
OW 0 33 44 76 100 7 0 0
VODI 0 8 57 115 123 25 0 0
ODI 0 4 36 56 100 52 0 0
CDI 0 1 33 44 165 165 51 17
VCDI 0 0 14 222 1602 3470 9660 14873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 428 91 152 59 0 0 0
OW 0 41 20 97 96 6 0 0
VODI 0 31 42 122 117 50 0 0
ODI 0 8 36 78 72 66 0 0
CDI 0 5 51 78 137 212 45 23
VCDI 0 4 57 262 1678 3385 9666 14867


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