Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 760 727 1119 440 0 0 0
OW 0 65 133 674 461 63 0 0
VODI 0 10 53 469 739 186 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 163 893 400 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 95 737 681 99 1
VCDI 0 0 0 54 658 3941 8352 23872
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 522 447 602 497 141 0 0
OW 0 124 153 545 463 177 0 0
VODI 0 19 95 406 520 367 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 149 692 359 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 133 775 1007 58 2
VCDI 0 0 0 86 683 4128 9020 23655
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 722 437 105 9 0 0
OW 0 0 34 422 185 202 39 0
VODI 0 0 0 253 464 232 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 621 354 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 637 1570 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 346 4662 9495 24953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 44 179 218 81 4 0 0
OW 0 23 156 280 221 86 17 0
VODI 0 0 16 259 340 312 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 303 363 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 325 826 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 227 5300 12747 23310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 220 256 112 13 4 0
OW 0 22 98 267 185 92 39 0
VODI 0 0 33 248 326 256 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 321 372 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 290 820 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 263 5338 12751 23310

Date: 2016-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 27 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 176 167 49 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 210 432 290 42 0
ODI 0 0 2 88 250 485 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 230 812 51 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 316 4656 14478 23002
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 39 76 18 0 0
OW 0 0 0 141 138 57 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 200 382 284 59 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 244 446 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 208 809 46 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 374 4680 14491 23002

Date: 2016-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 24 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 121 38 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 574 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 375 1563 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 4756 12440 25582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 12 0 3 0 0
OW 0 0 0 56 32 37 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 282 108 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 269 451 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 304 859 186 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 228 5011 12313 25580

Date: 2016-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 50 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 279 601 1 5
VCDI 0 0 0 2 473 6901 10736 26782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 109 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 104 222 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 164 965 19 6
VCDI 0 0 0 3 429 6273 10718 26781

Date: 2016-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 35 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 62 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 222 270 212 9
VCDI 0 0 0 6 447 5670 12871 26020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 74 86 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 113 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 187 421 392 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 469 5362 12651 26029


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