Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62587 27333 4681 2416 633 46 0 0
OW 46 165 277 1355 591 72 0 0
VODI 0 21 123 1092 1105 210 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 470 1413 489 4 0
CDI 0 0 10 292 1422 1042 157 71
VCDI 0 0 0 163 1729 9330 23708 43951
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58834 27514 6924 2179 711 230 0 0
OW 46 223 333 1275 554 186 0 0
VODI 0 40 181 1129 852 385 0 0
ODI 0 0 55 512 1202 397 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 365 1562 1268 65 9
VCDI 0 0 0 188 1940 9947 23328 44606
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52403 28124 13267 1839 307 103 1 0
OW 49 105 406 1043 279 209 39 0
VODI 0 46 200 1007 635 243 0 0
ODI 0 14 54 568 996 378 5 1
CDI 0 6 15 424 1450 1668 125 84
VCDI 0 0 21 301 1970 12303 24975 41385
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55712 27719 9557 1499 308 108 20 0
OW 51 570 550 762 325 115 17 0
VODI 0 322 448 802 560 325 42 0
ODI 0 84 318 591 592 393 20 1
CDI 0 57 243 551 738 1003 100 38
VCDI 0 99 233 978 2339 14519 30285 34054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55712 27954 9628 1584 345 122 24 0
OW 51 356 503 763 279 112 39 0
VODI 0 297 436 775 554 272 16 0
ODI 0 94 308 567 613 403 19 2
CDI 0 54 233 473 695 991 86 33
VCDI 0 96 241 1021 2376 14563 30300 34058

Date: 2016-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58094 24506 9454 1243 280 88 1 0
OW 55 559 330 654 318 67 0 0
VODI 0 336 501 734 676 305 42 0
ODI 0 258 510 507 531 538 53 0
CDI 0 152 459 391 688 1046 96 7
VCDI 0 140 683 965 1951 12410 33442 33978
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58094 24699 9478 1330 346 104 1 0
OW 55 337 290 603 271 72 0 0
VODI 0 320 449 712 632 309 59 0
ODI 0 271 471 508 536 506 28 0
CDI 0 141 430 344 707 1061 94 10
VCDI 0 183 819 997 1952 12402 33452 33975

Date: 2016-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55242 26785 11340 1111 131 63 4 0
OW 51 132 365 786 148 8 0 0
VODI 0 92 374 850 377 29 0 0
ODI 0 32 280 653 1054 198 0 0
CDI 0 5 77 453 942 1797 148 16
VCDI 0 2 85 617 1455 11643 27249 42454
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55241 25998 10675 972 197 68 4 0
OW 52 359 282 578 171 53 0 0
VODI 0 371 298 478 572 144 0 0
ODI 0 148 320 473 563 521 23 0
CDI 0 124 395 554 698 1103 259 21
VCDI 0 48 551 1415 1906 11849 27115 42449

Date: 2016-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52864 28256 10802 1376 200 30 0 0
OW 54 93 292 629 242 16 0 0
VODI 0 26 157 667 573 50 0 0
ODI 0 15 60 479 586 98 0 0
CDI 0 6 20 450 1203 865 17 20
VCDI 0 0 14 452 2462 14985 26141 42848
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52863 27825 10319 1197 223 35 0 0
OW 55 266 311 489 244 21 0 0
VODI 0 219 314 415 555 121 0 0
ODI 0 59 208 382 460 332 0 0
CDI 0 20 99 477 789 1268 46 29
VCDI 0 7 94 1093 2995 14267 26112 42839

Date: 2016-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53096 28339 9419 1432 241 84 9 0
OW 54 75 357 575 173 15 0 0
VODI 0 14 253 652 538 64 0 0
ODI 0 4 62 476 617 120 0 0
CDI 0 1 34 333 1039 574 267 26
VCDI 0 0 14 327 2843 13045 29643 42233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53096 28114 9036 1229 271 72 8 0
OW 54 166 290 498 246 36 1 0
VODI 0 98 368 633 526 205 0 0
ODI 0 41 220 378 403 261 47 0
CDI 0 10 141 437 858 803 493 23
VCDI 0 4 84 620 3147 12525 29370 42236


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