Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-12-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 288 199 166 24 1 0 0
OW 0 5 36 169 17 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 201 69 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 121 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 261 116 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 401 3549 9253 21704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 274 137 95 29 2 0 0
OW 0 7 32 63 23 10 0 0
VODI 0 12 27 126 28 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 158 43 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 20 160 157 63 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 199 613 3591 9253 21704

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 628 2417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 629 2416

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 49 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 299 2622 6920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 46 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 299 2621 6920

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 462 561 201 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 67 282 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 315 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 381 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 237 413 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 638 1716 57
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 365 388 219 27 0 0 0
OW 0 70 147 171 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 77 246 134 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 16 126 234 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 184 260 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 240 755 1716 57

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 161 883 6163
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 154 883 6169

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 414 4906
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 414 4904

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 429 473 315 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 210 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 153 123 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 213 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 233 105 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 898 2093 885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 413 411 188 4 0 0 0
OW 0 16 58 182 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 223 84 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 140 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 237 62 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 205 937 2079 885

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 291 6926 3133 195 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 176 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 105 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 75 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 64 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 101 103 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 291 6913 3089 191 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 45 129 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 115 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 66 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 65 42 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 44 125 97 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 433 5976 2553 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 28 119 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 117 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 71 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 149 65 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 75 1207 715 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 433 5976 2473 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 79 69 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 112 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 91 47 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 101 51 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 152 1216 710 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4803 6431 1126 273 149 98 2 0
OW 0 0 0 14 16 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 21 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4803 6431 1126 275 156 101 2 0
OW 0 0 0 14 18 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 20 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 194 287 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 72 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 53 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 63 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 95 6 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 200 1204 2818 643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 194 268 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 68 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 81 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 82 6 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 250 1204 2822 643

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 157 104 87 25 0
OW 0 0 0 88 114 152 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 240 208 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 336 403 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 428 1434 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 18 2363 2203 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 227 311 385 26 0
OW 0 0 0 60 163 380 17 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 156 636 22 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 148 381 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 272 731 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 190 2134 2137 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6636 7366 3848 350 9 0 0 0
OW 0 25 30 236 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 14 187 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 249 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 264 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 431 212 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6636 7304 3722 325 5 0 0 0
OW 0 61 86 166 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 48 183 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 84 121 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 78 342 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 225 426 212 0


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