Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-12-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 147 148 215 16 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 119 59 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 79 160 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 236 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 116 108 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 184 2249 11357 21605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 147 136 166 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 87 51 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 92 94 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 145 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 200 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 259 2288 11357 21605

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 145 791 2192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 145 791 2192

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 56 1320 8605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 56 1320 8605

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 151 452 491 73 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 250 89 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 153 207 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 311 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 156 530 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 589 1924 39
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 151 404 538 99 3 0 0
OW 0 0 45 181 182 20 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 148 226 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 142 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 109 361 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 98 622 1930 39

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 120 1643 5395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 47
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 141 1643 5412

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 29
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 1749 3486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 1750 3473

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1091 680 266 0 0 0 0
OW 0 40 80 243 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 24 285 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 107 216 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 241 213 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 162 895 1587 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 888 567 182 8 0 0 0
OW 0 142 86 202 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 67 248 81 46 0 0
ODI 0 21 22 149 69 62 9 0
CDI 0 7 26 81 225 95 36 0
VCDI 0 2 19 94 259 917 1566 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1057 6174 2808 413 27 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 74 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 191 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 47 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 6 146 21 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1057 6159 2806 358 25 0 0 0
OW 0 17 3 114 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 164 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 82 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 19 179 21 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3866 4495 613 111 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 17 103 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 111 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 62 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 141 38 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 815 1124 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3866 4495 536 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 59 79 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 106 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 76 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 115 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 142 841 1124 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6433 5046 1086 204 107 34 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 4 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 9 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6433 5046 1085 188 105 31 0 0
OW 0 0 1 29 6 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 9 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 21 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 364 287 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 61 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 64 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 72 15 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 620 2796 1311 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 337 199 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 63 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 26 62 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 69 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 58 15 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 644 2796 1311 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1527 1604 304 29 0 0 0
OW 0 127 127 429 265 16 0 0
VODI 0 16 17 205 518 57 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 45 354 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 44 938 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 66 1389 311 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1563 1652 708 459 126 0 0
OW 0 74 93 183 298 204 0 0
VODI 0 28 3 67 334 289 5 0
ODI 0 6 0 24 114 237 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 5 346 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 66 1369 303 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7101 7685 3695 325 3 0 0 0
OW 0 20 5 206 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 126 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 66 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 142 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 267 363 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7101 7653 3581 251 4 0 0 0
OW 0 25 97 167 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 22 173 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 65 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 103 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 322 370 13 0


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