Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68860 21131 3670 1223 194 1 0 0
OW 24 16 40 416 151 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 319 302 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 467 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 546 253 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 187 4540 6234 268
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57639 28082 7633 1162 144 22 0 0
OW 24 39 82 387 128 3 0 0
VODI 0 4 11 283 378 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 141 366 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 562 263 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 289 5427 5659 253
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52864 28096 11571 1526 224 40 0 0
OW 24 9 31 441 144 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 307 320 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 428 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 572 216 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 429 5419 6053 185
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59258 24286 9052 981 193 15 0 0
OW 27 21 116 413 175 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 54 326 247 24 0 0
ODI 0 2 10 192 286 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 302 116 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 900 5356 5907 583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59258 24287 9072 1020 189 15 0 0
OW 27 20 96 356 182 5 0 0
VODI 0 4 54 328 238 21 0 0
ODI 0 3 9 204 283 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 121 283 117 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 928 5355 5907 583

Date: 2016-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58424 25690 8327 649 139 35 0 0
OW 29 39 148 494 40 12 0 0
VODI 0 9 46 521 181 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 15 243 271 23 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 99 466 68 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 811 4541 6621 1088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58424 25697 8358 661 141 35 0 0
OW 29 32 122 445 35 11 0 0
VODI 0 9 40 537 160 16 0 0
ODI 0 3 15 255 289 24 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 105 452 76 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 831 4530 6621 1088

Date: 2016-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59406 24463 8345 1134 152 34 0 0
OW 29 12 22 366 105 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 301 254 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 176 470 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 419 238 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 787 4528 6200 1452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59406 24406 8082 896 150 31 0 0
OW 29 56 201 330 74 12 0 0
VODI 0 13 78 332 203 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 237 348 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 221 454 156 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 102 958 4617 6200 1452

Date: 2016-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60497 26516 4954 1099 221 30 0 0
OW 42 31 77 318 141 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 278 254 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 159 334 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 416 301 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 559 5444 6876 199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60497 26409 4646 906 217 28 0 0
OW 42 105 178 278 110 9 0 0
VODI 0 33 173 262 208 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 52 229 216 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 18 224 443 270 4 0
VCDI 0 0 1 145 731 5477 6876 199

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62587 25750 3492 1045 193 46 0 0
OW 46 77 83 416 94 9 0 0
VODI 0 10 47 377 205 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 201 274 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 119 391 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 755 4023 6425 2083
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62588 25556 3274 936 200 44 0 0
OW 45 145 144 249 85 14 0 0
VODI 0 116 149 331 162 22 0 0
ODI 0 20 60 295 193 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 291 384 247 7 0
VCDI 0 0 1 145 888 3920 6418 2083


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