Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 614 6352 1576 740 31 0 0 0
OW 0 86 43 328 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 180 225 41 1 0
ODI 0 1 0 115 204 111 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 230 171 38 2
VCDI 0 0 0 41 227 2432 8648 23139
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 748 5331 1889 790 25 0 0 0
OW 0 141 90 451 124 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 207 281 31 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 92 245 108 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 285 207 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 234 1920 9199 23305
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 423 5320 2413 772 62 0 0 0
OW 0 102 81 388 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 16 256 318 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 164 411 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 396 335 26 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 417 3157 10281 20337
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2427 4469 1071 153 1 0 0
OW 0 147 203 370 217 20 0 0
VODI 0 33 95 199 338 42 0 0
ODI 0 6 18 126 270 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 129 428 510 31 1
VCDI 0 0 0 147 799 3165 8367 21938
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2467 4513 1077 112 0 0 0
OW 0 106 175 361 204 14 0 0
VODI 0 38 87 194 345 35 0 0
ODI 0 2 12 138 267 130 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 128 432 496 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 144 845 3206 8375 21939

Date: 2016-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3160 2006 1326 433 38 0 0
OW 0 143 93 541 459 115 0 0
VODI 0 11 81 287 424 236 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 100 218 314 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 198 798 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 283 2891 9270 22319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3178 1953 1379 482 45 0 0
OW 0 121 161 507 410 79 0 0
VODI 0 13 67 283 400 240 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 87 233 275 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 183 753 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 307 3000 9272 22319

Date: 2016-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1748 2268 910 102 0 0 0
OW 0 143 134 795 365 19 0 0
VODI 0 24 18 418 758 88 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 86 687 303 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 241 1473 33 2
VCDI 0 0 0 17 399 3463 6711 24648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1768 2237 1322 560 129 0 0
OW 0 81 168 462 485 224 0 0
VODI 0 56 14 318 585 374 5 0
ODI 0 11 1 97 283 431 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 161 713 18 2
VCDI 0 0 0 20 478 3475 6709 24648

Date: 2016-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1578 1337 983 44 0 0 0
OW 0 64 78 820 359 3 0 0
VODI 0 30 16 464 885 139 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 254 701 222 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 101 408 758 42 2
VCDI 0 0 0 25 595 3822 8045 24091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1549 1207 1211 448 121 0 0
OW 0 104 199 760 612 241 7 0
VODI 0 19 25 493 660 262 94 0
ODI 0 0 0 147 455 320 188 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 315 665 193 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 502 3335 7605 24090

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 760 727 1119 440 0 0 0
OW 0 65 133 674 461 63 0 0
VODI 0 10 53 469 739 186 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 163 893 400 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 95 737 681 99 1
VCDI 0 0 0 54 658 3941 8352 23872
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 671 681 1328 693 155 0 0
OW 0 147 171 525 587 338 19 0
VODI 0 17 78 481 811 458 182 0
ODI 0 0 0 152 812 249 289 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 577 821 476 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 448 3250 7489 23873


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