Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69474 29248 6019 2343 249 1 0 0
OW 24 295 305 1025 361 8 0 0
VODI 0 100 142 904 687 80 1 0
ODI 0 1 17 383 986 204 14 0
CDI 0 0 1 190 1173 638 48 84
VCDI 0 0 0 62 618 9398 25990 35975
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58387 34747 10439 2276 178 22 0 0
OW 24 339 562 1099 298 3 0 0
VODI 0 100 358 829 785 60 0 0
ODI 0 6 41 512 755 189 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 336 1136 645 59 60
VCDI 0 0 0 103 1009 11622 26157 33911
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53287 35176 15391 2675 286 40 0 0
OW 24 127 232 1175 268 10 0 0
VODI 0 12 40 920 785 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 417 1107 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 95 1307 746 44 19
VCDI 0 0 0 14 1127 12962 26026 32640
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59258 27857 15135 2321 346 16 0 0
OW 27 233 502 1080 411 22 0 0
VODI 0 61 280 810 705 68 0 0
ODI 0 9 78 542 731 203 0 0
CDI 0 3 45 417 958 769 62 7
VCDI 0 12 10 328 2118 11334 26142 34148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59258 27921 15221 2395 302 15 0 0
OW 27 159 444 980 417 19 0 0
VODI 0 65 265 820 694 57 0 0
ODI 0 14 50 564 725 193 0 0
CDI 0 2 50 409 932 759 56 7
VCDI 0 14 20 330 2199 11369 26148 34148

Date: 2016-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58424 30388 10839 2286 574 73 0 0
OW 29 271 413 1404 545 128 0 0
VODI 0 56 222 1109 729 293 4 0
ODI 0 14 59 558 646 411 10 0
CDI 0 4 2 350 917 1120 126 51
VCDI 0 0 0 152 1511 10271 27420 35639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58424 30408 10853 2491 635 80 0 0
OW 29 233 435 1254 513 96 0 0
VODI 0 66 173 1072 652 313 11 0
ODI 0 23 46 550 667 354 10 0
CDI 0 3 28 313 897 1072 126 51
VCDI 0 0 0 179 1558 10381 27413 35639

Date: 2016-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59406 27553 11375 2404 255 34 0 0
OW 29 196 237 1505 506 28 0 0
VODI 0 33 52 1077 1185 98 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 381 1474 354 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 167 959 2002 70 95
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1415 9612 23151 41322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59406 27313 10968 2489 722 160 0 0
OW 29 280 456 1076 660 236 0 0
VODI 0 150 159 963 927 433 5 0
ODI 0 32 39 506 772 526 21 0
CDI 0 7 26 333 900 1000 66 91
VCDI 0 2 19 235 1813 9773 23129 41326

Date: 2016-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60497 28511 7462 2400 265 30 0 0
OW 42 99 270 1400 519 11 0 0
VODI 0 31 85 1030 1282 168 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 544 1324 328 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 316 1160 1229 52 77
VCDI 0 0 0 169 1409 11700 24301 40310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60497 28371 6874 2388 678 149 0 0
OW 42 215 535 1315 779 251 7 0
VODI 0 55 296 1056 1111 320 94 0
ODI 0 0 77 512 900 508 188 0
CDI 0 0 35 323 1003 1141 203 81
VCDI 0 0 27 265 1488 11097 23861 40306

Date: 2016-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62587 27333 4681 2416 633 46 0 0
OW 46 165 277 1355 591 72 0 0
VODI 0 21 123 1092 1105 210 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 470 1413 489 4 0
CDI 0 0 10 292 1422 1042 157 71
VCDI 0 0 0 163 1729 9330 23708 43951
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62588 27023 4375 2509 920 199 0 0
OW 45 340 398 1021 737 362 19 0
VODI 0 136 271 1063 1183 532 185 0
ODI 0 20 63 580 1267 449 338 0
CDI 0 0 27 424 1169 1234 609 38
VCDI 0 0 1 191 1617 8413 22718 43984


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