Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71657 20237 3780 990 102 0 0 0
OW 23 34 94 408 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 23 331 214 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 155 297 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 444 467 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 3720 4738 946
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65302 24363 5188 1003 191 0 0 0
OW 25 28 116 496 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 61 383 194 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 177 266 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 376 240 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 336 4010 5140 879
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66362 22350 5787 1075 155 2 0 0
OW 26 10 31 448 149 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 322 368 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 145 491 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 396 255 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 238 4614 5223 540
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55912 30074 8028 1093 187 9 0 0
OW 29 8 59 419 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 383 263 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 168 438 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 425 214 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 329 4439 5912 411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55912 30074 8019 1085 199 9 0 0
OW 29 9 68 431 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 385 291 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 163 338 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 519 235 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 325 4427 5908 411

Date: 2016-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62138 26766 4609 1193 150 12 0 0
OW 24 24 39 411 187 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 224 394 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 394 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 511 396 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 177 5371 5641 161
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62138 26766 4607 1179 169 12 0 0
OW 24 24 41 403 158 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 260 410 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 369 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 531 365 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 176 5380 5639 161

Date: 2016-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55680 29666 7834 1219 176 25 0 0
OW 24 10 23 449 85 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 309 342 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 618 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 501 279 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 203 5605 5647 269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55679 29616 7758 1108 199 25 0 0
OW 25 54 96 408 108 16 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 365 294 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 342 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 521 180 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 461 5661 5643 269

Date: 2016-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56851 28281 7652 1005 198 39 0 0
OW 25 16 90 399 141 22 0 0
VODI 0 7 16 345 221 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 190 283 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 280 315 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 749 5598 5750 362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56849 28230 7471 992 308 82 0 0
OW 27 37 203 330 94 43 0 0
VODI 0 32 78 311 234 60 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 224 204 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 160 273 177 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 759 5663 5747 362

Date: 2016-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55732 27757 9190 698 129 23 0 0
OW 34 16 117 544 67 9 0 0
VODI 0 7 29 451 206 6 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 219 277 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 440 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 707 4578 6163 1432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55731 27699 9062 816 279 34 0 0
OW 35 35 155 364 87 19 0 0
VODI 0 23 82 417 151 29 0 0
ODI 0 17 40 246 210 59 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 155 328 135 1 0
VCDI 0 1 0 64 771 4449 6162 1432


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