Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 6326 2448 227 0 0 0 0
OW 0 158 190 353 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 37 341 179 0 0 0
ODI 0 45 19 136 270 76 0 1
CDI 0 0 45 255 348 278 4 12
VCDI 0 0 0 21 268 2409 6550 23981
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 958 6179 2083 199 0 0 0 0
OW 0 175 194 353 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 36 341 213 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 186 234 58 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 95 277 253 46 0
VCDI 0 0 4 117 337 2192 11344 19891
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1116 6507 1684 589 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 55 306 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 7 216 227 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 15 183 221 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 111 216 260 26 2
VCDI 0 0 0 11 225 2274 10842 20575
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 838 6423 1663 598 9 0 0 0
OW 0 83 43 311 116 1 0 0
VODI 0 35 2 208 185 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 154 171 107 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 210 200 59 5
VCDI 0 0 0 34 241 2222 9415 22396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 838 6429 1658 635 26 0 0 0
OW 0 78 49 271 88 7 0 0
VODI 0 34 1 198 201 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 159 108 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 196 234 50 12
VCDI 0 0 0 46 262 2186 9426 22389

Date: 2016-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 691 5974 1524 785 34 0 0 0
OW 0 114 67 377 151 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 9 176 251 61 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 113 203 123 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 254 182 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 239 2004 9172 23152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 691 6010 1505 875 63 0 0 0
OW 0 89 88 276 118 8 0 0
VODI 0 33 7 170 231 49 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 101 209 105 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 242 210 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 269 1998 9184 23152

Date: 2016-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 549 5159 2513 804 19 0 0 0
OW 0 109 19 536 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 3 274 317 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 536 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 336 317 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 204 2729 10171 21058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 549 5113 2345 751 65 0 0 0
OW 0 123 142 397 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 38 272 193 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 10 142 238 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 88 400 138 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 516 2922 10176 21058

Date: 2016-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 231 5110 2352 829 113 2 0 0
OW 0 98 168 313 177 12 0 0
VODI 0 20 62 175 363 27 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 116 265 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 323 435 20 1
VCDI 0 0 0 66 733 3401 7682 22476
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 231 4988 2142 778 266 5 0 0
OW 0 197 238 241 212 27 0 0
VODI 0 44 127 206 237 70 0 0
ODI 0 1 62 93 202 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 149 210 374 8 0
VCDI 0 0 2 207 847 3434 7694 22477

Date: 2016-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3330 2683 1237 305 8 0 0
OW 0 155 96 543 325 52 0 0
VODI 0 24 84 297 318 117 0 0
ODI 0 1 34 93 272 206 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 88 346 630 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 461 3059 9522 21472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3226 2596 1134 737 172 0 0
OW 0 140 107 512 128 170 0 0
VODI 0 104 54 329 174 212 0 0
ODI 0 33 63 76 145 188 7 0
CDI 0 7 50 92 234 469 35 2
VCDI 0 0 28 171 609 2861 9531 21470


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