Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-12-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 72446 30585 7185 1457 103 0 0 0
OW 23 282 447 1077 162 0 0 0
VODI 0 130 139 1066 639 23 0 0
ODI 0 47 34 421 978 199 2 3
CDI 0 0 54 376 982 1014 93 65
VCDI 0 0 0 34 669 11325 22650 32338
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 66355 33702 8281 1440 200 0 0 0
OW 27 234 582 1175 236 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 171 1177 540 46 0 0
ODI 0 7 40 671 726 263 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 276 881 817 121 16
VCDI 0 0 4 136 911 10040 28215 29704
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 67482 32167 8256 2011 162 2 0 0
OW 26 132 198 1071 244 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 20 872 728 16 0 0
ODI 0 15 16 458 1048 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 146 986 763 88 8
VCDI 0 0 0 11 696 8721 27803 32711
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56758 38721 10472 2044 207 9 0 0
OW 29 344 332 1052 286 1 0 0
VODI 0 67 100 954 595 56 0 0
ODI 0 5 19 422 919 215 5 0
CDI 0 3 0 227 1043 571 73 52
VCDI 0 0 0 42 806 9593 25458 35568
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56758 38757 10511 2108 238 9 0 0
OW 29 301 317 1018 227 7 0 0
VODI 0 71 75 911 649 64 0 0
ODI 0 8 20 425 796 200 3 0
CDI 0 3 0 214 1142 655 83 58
VCDI 0 0 0 65 804 9510 25450 35562

Date: 2016-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 62829 34215 6904 2399 222 12 0 0
OW 24 246 337 1092 407 11 0 0
VODI 0 78 218 813 829 114 0 0
ODI 0 8 18 446 842 253 8 0
CDI 0 0 3 211 1133 797 53 77
VCDI 0 0 0 57 619 10735 24635 36403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 62829 34262 6931 2483 273 12 0 0
OW 24 207 337 998 337 16 0 0
VODI 0 72 190 852 859 112 0 0
ODI 0 6 17 381 816 266 6 0
CDI 0 0 5 214 1116 872 53 77
VCDI 0 0 0 90 651 10644 24637 36403

Date: 2016-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56229 36636 11739 2594 196 25 0 0
OW 24 130 87 1376 179 4 0 0
VODI 0 23 6 902 850 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 217 1457 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 1200 883 41 26
VCDI 0 0 0 15 679 12285 27040 32064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56228 36369 10902 2177 266 25 0 0
OW 25 324 545 1092 205 16 0 0
VODI 0 91 350 983 600 41 0 0
ODI 0 5 34 486 776 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 269 1212 609 46 25
VCDI 0 0 0 122 1502 12524 27035 32065

Date: 2016-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57082 34959 11331 2191 311 41 0 0
OW 25 142 416 1041 325 34 0 0
VODI 0 28 153 879 714 86 0 0
ODI 0 2 10 501 771 197 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 407 895 880 43 34
VCDI 0 0 0 136 1829 11657 23125 36801
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57080 34552 10291 1972 576 87 0 0
OW 27 407 820 758 316 70 0 0
VODI 0 165 623 922 566 130 0 0
ODI 0 7 155 612 608 189 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 528 758 750 41 23
VCDI 0 0 2 363 2021 11669 23127 36812

Date: 2016-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 55732 32903 12490 2197 435 31 0 0
OW 34 309 393 1368 430 62 0 0
VODI 0 72 258 998 665 154 0 0
ODI 0 8 138 498 736 272 3 0
CDI 0 0 20 413 1009 880 85 38
VCDI 0 0 0 300 1616 9784 27890 34827
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 55731 32294 12035 2107 1026 206 0 0
OW 35 379 418 1019 234 189 0 0
VODI 0 371 366 1010 376 241 0 0
ODI 0 168 280 583 590 321 9 24
CDI 0 61 123 500 853 833 76 65
VCDI 0 19 77 555 1812 9393 27893 34776


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