Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-11-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-28

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 623 478 404 17 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 174 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 166 140 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 260 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 177 459 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 3674 14889 15233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 622 469 285 24 0 0 0
OW 0 1 9 163 50 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 194 95 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 171 86 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 177 198 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 137 3844 14852 15233

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 224 2089 787
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 234 2091 787

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 1149 8804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 1146 8802

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 901 1031 298 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 19 261 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 78 246 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 281 30 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 1 125 237 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 759 1327 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 880 955 214 15 0 0 0
OW 0 24 83 178 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 168 205 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 208 55 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 28 148 216 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 754 1325 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 129 1956 5152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 127 1956 5146

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 23 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 353 3051 1875
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 18 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 358 3056 1856

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10 2743 882 152 1 0 0 0
OW 5 24 51 271 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 1 285 62 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 79 249 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 218 231 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 405 477 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10 2730 762 86 10 0 0 0
OW 5 36 127 222 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 41 323 115 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 118 210 42 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 36 130 211 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 179 402 470 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3888 6009 1142 164 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 41 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3888 6010 1142 178 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 38 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1446 6343 1393 126 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 10 140 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 132 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 115 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 168 180 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1273 229 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1446 6343 1360 112 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 38 121 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 129 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 95 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 147 77 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 1375 233 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8381 3954 316 194 141 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8381 3954 316 194 141 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 483 480 151 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 11 113 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 85 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 123 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 178 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 1884 1970 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 449 399 68 11 0 0 0
OW 0 24 51 67 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 35 137 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 70 118 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 120 43 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 191 1886 1969 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1024 5552 496 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 42 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 13 136 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 159 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 173 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 396 206 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1024 5222 365 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 280 98 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 53 66 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 28 76 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 130 86 8 1 0
VCDI 0 0 2 124 249 390 205 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13086 5462 748 284 15 0 0 0
OW 0 27 1 96 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 70 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 130 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13086 5461 749 363 197 0 0 0
OW 0 27 0 93 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 16 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 35 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 12 0 0


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