Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118 5072 1040 88 0 0 0 0
OW 0 491 220 57 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 255 515 320 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 24 437 106 7 4 0
CDI 0 8 11 243 302 138 56 19
VCDI 0 0 0 98 477 8661 11004 2285
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10 4829 1059 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 269 281 123 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 351 409 580 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 36 447 133 24 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 232 307 134 89 40
VCDI 0 0 0 101 587 5433 10467 5993
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80 5112 1288 245 0 0 0 0
OW 0 126 145 406 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 26 329 51 1 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 128 491 33 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 22 312 436 77 36
VCDI 0 0 0 10 208 3353 11515 7584
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 4199 1168 244 8 0 0 0
OW 0 73 202 344 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 58 427 323 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 27 101 305 32 6 1
CDI 0 2 3 79 211 387 95 46
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 4606 10336 8620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 4223 1196 225 8 0 0 0
OW 0 57 181 299 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 59 437 201 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 21 167 433 36 5 0
CDI 0 2 1 67 230 335 103 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 4654 10329 8623

Date: 2016-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 247 3568 809 256 14 0 0 0
OW 1 62 202 295 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 76 468 155 41 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 206 263 185 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 75 223 252 110 8
VCDI 0 0 0 34 224 5314 11310 7610
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 247 3606 895 315 7 0 0 0
OW 1 32 157 305 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 50 461 138 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 162 302 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 233 289 104 8
VCDI 0 0 0 19 217 5328 11316 7610

Date: 2016-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12 3175 1177 416 4 0 0 0
OW 5 24 51 390 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 1 395 140 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 116 393 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 310 530 62 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 138 1948 11456 11256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12 3161 1051 277 18 0 0 0
OW 5 37 133 337 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 41 445 163 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 206 321 75 18 0
CDI 0 1 1 50 230 334 77 37
VCDI 0 0 0 15 254 2090 11423 11231

Date: 2016-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 2331 1304 338 7 0 0 0
OW 0 73 187 352 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 40 372 120 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 310 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 465 141 16 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 275 1931 10666 12912
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 2355 1202 305 20 0 0 0
OW 0 49 210 373 36 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 110 391 203 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 152 347 45 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 334 333 82 29
VCDI 0 0 0 3 262 1703 10575 12892

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1765 773 380 24 0 0 0
OW 0 193 222 281 66 4 0 0
VODI 0 52 137 405 160 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 160 315 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 397 214 4 82
VCDI 0 0 0 18 204 2426 11108 12568
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1833 808 487 39 4 0 0
OW 0 171 225 284 134 14 0 0
VODI 0 6 103 350 281 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 147 296 133 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 298 367 92 136
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 2133 11011 12514


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