Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 32 9211 1559 112 1 0 0 0
OW 0 180 137 226 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 54 371 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 140 74 285 369 38 0 0
CDI 0 36 87 211 624 239 2 0
VCDI 0 39 10 93 1305 4768 9274 16223
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 738 8065 1557 214 4 0 0 0
OW 0 157 181 230 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 50 214 240 11 0 0
ODI 0 66 27 185 329 78 0 0
CDI 0 40 133 111 446 445 23 0
VCDI 0 0 21 202 519 3920 9942 17514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 760 7805 1672 195 1 0 0 0
OW 0 109 103 309 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 16 371 123 1 0 0
ODI 0 20 45 294 445 6 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 74 823 386 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 194 4014 7425 20622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 814 6088 2836 263 0 0 0 0
OW 0 161 135 371 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 20 365 132 5 0 0
ODI 0 26 52 162 297 60 2 0
CDI 0 0 43 279 428 258 3 20
VCDI 0 0 0 37 267 2847 7000 22790
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 814 6053 2830 277 0 0 0 0
OW 0 178 130 345 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 33 347 156 7 0 0
ODI 0 23 68 209 247 72 2 0
CDI 0 0 25 275 429 290 3 19
VCDI 0 0 0 24 291 2801 7000 22791

Date: 2016-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1010 6667 1680 242 1 0 0 0
OW 0 184 146 384 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 35 303 231 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 33 92 292 76 0 0
CDI 0 1 32 160 317 308 21 3
VCDI 0 0 0 59 266 2219 7984 22970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1010 6644 1678 313 9 0 0 0
OW 0 192 147 314 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 45 266 246 9 0 0
ODI 0 22 28 138 254 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 186 351 327 30 4
VCDI 0 0 0 23 260 2168 7975 22969

Date: 2016-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1024 6953 1680 332 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 61 335 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 13 214 252 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 174 327 30 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 34 305 311 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 2439 11239 19847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1024 6600 1473 231 15 0 0 0
OW 0 324 181 201 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 65 234 205 1 0 0
ODI 0 23 28 141 222 57 1 0
CDI 0 1 5 158 236 275 26 2
VCDI 0 0 2 124 320 2447 11228 19845

Date: 2016-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1125 6791 1178 610 11 0 0 0
OW 0 82 45 303 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 2 209 185 31 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 178 174 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 91 211 224 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 226 2187 9748 21968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1125 6513 962 431 71 6 0 0
OW 0 265 214 180 76 20 0 0
VODI 0 110 47 305 122 64 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 205 110 103 12 0
CDI 0 0 1 141 244 268 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 154 279 2079 9725 21968

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 614 6352 1576 740 31 0 0 0
OW 0 86 43 328 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 180 225 41 1 0
ODI 0 1 0 115 204 111 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 230 171 38 2
VCDI 0 0 0 41 227 2432 8648 23139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 614 6248 1394 473 116 16 2 0
OW 0 165 200 288 89 25 7 0
VODI 0 72 29 352 139 67 21 0
ODI 0 2 0 150 151 84 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 216 251 88 2
VCDI 0 0 0 135 350 2312 8553 23139


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