Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70295 37393 6277 487 50 0 0 0
OW 16 1120 606 465 13 3 0 0
VODI 0 400 732 1120 126 15 0 0
ODI 0 168 183 1107 595 90 4 0
CDI 0 44 110 744 1202 520 58 19
VCDI 0 39 10 252 2428 18571 23132 18654
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71917 36140 4647 776 80 9 0 0
OW 18 826 741 579 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 530 694 1293 309 24 3 0
ODI 0 95 110 997 685 127 6 0
CDI 0 41 147 536 1170 802 113 40
VCDI 0 0 21 385 1427 13647 23822 24213
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74194 33050 5883 1298 107 0 0 0
OW 18 252 304 1090 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 49 1098 366 5 0 0
ODI 0 30 46 559 1501 84 3 0
CDI 0 3 0 113 1659 1419 106 36
VCDI 0 0 0 10 513 10906 23084 29110
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75153 28177 7475 1671 98 0 0 0
OW 20 259 436 1109 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 105 1095 668 7 0 0
ODI 0 29 79 401 969 121 8 1
CDI 0 2 46 381 1269 1099 101 66
VCDI 0 0 0 37 520 11297 21581 32515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75153 28171 7515 1702 102 0 0 0
OW 20 262 395 963 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 162 116 1129 561 9 0 0
ODI 0 27 89 511 1066 133 7 0
CDI 0 2 26 363 1227 997 109 63
VCDI 0 0 0 26 601 11385 21574 32519

Date: 2016-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66936 32968 9002 1818 189 0 0 0
OW 25 273 469 1107 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 149 1102 622 46 0 0
ODI 0 34 56 492 808 316 0 0
CDI 0 1 33 281 905 950 133 11
VCDI 0 0 0 93 663 11509 24037 31715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66936 32980 9111 2020 199 0 0 0
OW 25 252 408 981 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 125 1055 647 24 0 0
ODI 0 22 36 482 819 339 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 313 909 923 136 12
VCDI 0 0 0 42 682 11535 24034 31714

Date: 2016-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69380 32360 6966 1804 195 2 0 0
OW 30 113 136 1167 181 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 17 977 769 10 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 414 1219 105 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 53 1046 1224 83 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 423 9127 27343 31851
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69380 31961 6517 1511 413 2 0 0
OW 30 393 406 905 257 8 0 0
VODI 0 131 148 1047 607 63 0 0
ODI 0 27 40 521 855 187 19 0
CDI 0 2 6 290 812 797 104 39
VCDI 0 0 2 141 889 9411 27303 31824

Date: 2016-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68011 30957 8081 1975 190 1 0 0
OW 28 172 307 1017 281 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 50 877 678 40 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 484 916 220 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 210 1025 618 57 9
VCDI 0 0 0 25 963 8167 26069 35581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68011 30652 7612 1669 414 7 0 0
OW 28 375 607 869 430 57 0 0
VODI 0 128 205 1029 643 173 0 0
ODI 0 12 14 581 669 276 47 0
CDI 0 0 1 263 843 818 158 29
VCDI 0 0 0 177 1054 7715 25921 35561

Date: 2016-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69474 29248 6019 2343 249 1 0 0
OW 24 295 305 1025 361 8 0 0
VODI 0 100 142 904 687 80 1 0
ODI 0 1 17 383 986 204 14 0
CDI 0 0 1 190 1173 638 48 84
VCDI 0 0 0 62 618 9398 25990 35975
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69474 29152 5710 2173 500 22 2 0
OW 24 373 585 971 531 57 7 0
VODI 0 117 175 994 852 209 22 0
ODI 0 2 14 434 784 336 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 192 750 889 220 138
VCDI 0 0 0 143 657 8816 25699 35921


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