Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-11-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 114 1651 707 166 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 65 313 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 350 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 397 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 183 369 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 4537 12879 14984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 114 1137 228 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 162 120 83 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 291 202 395 80 5 0 0
ODI 0 68 172 256 233 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 50 118 197 248 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 120 4615 12843 14984

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 226 658 2229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 221 658 2229

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 95 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 142 158 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 559 3703 5274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 38 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 54 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 45 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 666 3689 5274

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2096 484 180 1 0 0 0
OW 0 20 68 265 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 250 136 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 386 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 150 405 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 473 670 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2102 502 293 16 0 0 0
OW 0 18 49 195 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 174 189 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 252 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 170 224 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 602 670 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 159 1 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 556 2710 3783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 122 2 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 589 2709 3792

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 135 9 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 108 145 28 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 1610 2941 48
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 44 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 56 28 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 293 1734 2928 55

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 4477 651 107 0 0 0 0
OW 0 94 62 101 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 6 105 29 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 64 88 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 100 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 66 127 30 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 4184 352 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 255 120 46 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 150 228 171 36 3 0 0
ODI 0 49 17 87 57 8 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 59 85 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 107 129 30 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4146 6584 479 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 2 31 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4146 6565 481 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 0 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3332 4808 1175 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 131 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 124 29 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 90 21 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 180 183 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 1277 79 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3332 4805 1092 85 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 60 87 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 103 24 6 3 0
ODI 0 0 1 89 48 18 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 131 118 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 129 1342 79 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7352 5013 320 202 94 7 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7352 5013 320 202 94 7 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 694 940 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 71 156 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 279 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 134 507 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 226 211 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 121 1654 650 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 589 803 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 63 89 80 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 69 199 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 53 144 162 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 337 46 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 356 1816 648 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 764 5363 943 64 4 0 0 0
OW 0 56 33 50 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 97 189 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 224 110 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 156 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 389 39 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 764 5133 859 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 137 49 40 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 26 71 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 41 13 59 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 46 52 52 8 0 0
VCDI 0 18 80 271 247 397 39 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12160 7117 862 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 1 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12160 7094 855 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 7 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 1 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 14 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0


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