Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72328 20710 2667 291 25 3 0 0
OW 16 824 102 196 28 7 0 0
VODI 0 303 365 401 123 11 0 0
ODI 0 13 193 482 367 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 360 162 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 237 4310 3026 1418
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68506 23368 3696 352 18 3 0 0
OW 18 771 131 176 42 10 0 0
VODI 0 580 180 215 130 20 0 0
ODI 0 261 227 401 162 49 1 0
CDI 0 5 54 163 618 361 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 205 4783 2945 633
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72395 21745 2793 609 70 2 0 0
OW 16 51 157 398 52 14 0 0
VODI 0 1 32 457 172 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 210 502 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 502 617 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 6032 1779 336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67993 22993 5908 387 35 0 0 0
OW 17 310 222 258 18 3 0 0
VODI 0 9 149 417 60 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 59 378 198 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 217 436 169 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 441 6363 1961 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67993 23055 5876 401 38 0 0 0
OW 17 238 256 262 18 2 0 0
VODI 0 19 139 383 62 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 64 357 180 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 247 420 152 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 470 6384 1962 0

Date: 2016-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70900 23743 2148 320 61 5 0 0
OW 16 506 228 197 0 2 0 0
VODI 0 65 225 412 30 13 0 0
ODI 0 18 62 386 134 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 260 313 170 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 427 4260 3466 600
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70899 23812 2133 338 61 5 0 0
OW 17 390 242 171 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 208 406 39 15 0 0
ODI 0 21 68 340 124 35 0 0
CDI 0 7 41 292 281 158 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 460 4277 3466 600

Date: 2016-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68328 24823 3833 472 94 7 0 0
OW 16 21 99 408 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 523 140 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 684 23 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 457 434 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 124 3776 3726 843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68325 24421 3462 391 94 7 0 0
OW 19 204 185 229 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 219 234 447 135 6 3 0
ODI 0 0 54 294 277 24 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 173 539 250 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 95 452 3956 3731 843

Date: 2016-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67228 25218 3692 899 91 0 0 0
OW 19 19 97 391 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 17 368 164 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 429 29 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 723 479 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 3764 4290 827
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67225 24828 3277 636 83 0 0 0
OW 22 184 219 320 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 202 202 415 125 5 0 0
ODI 0 31 78 199 324 35 4 0
CDI 0 3 26 184 431 277 7 0
VCDI 0 0 4 64 588 3958 4294 827

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71657 20237 3780 990 102 0 0 0
OW 23 34 94 408 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 23 331 214 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 155 297 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 444 467 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 3720 4738 946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71656 20028 3356 530 78 0 0 0
OW 24 137 223 303 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 220 500 107 2 0 0
ODI 0 31 64 325 290 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 32 185 384 241 0 0
VCDI 0 0 2 79 503 3971 4738 946


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