Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 172 4881 399 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 483 209 69 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 161 179 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 53 103 230 252 55 2 0
CDI 0 7 71 503 776 453 71 36
VCDI 0 20 18 197 699 4316 10306 7113
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80 4512 605 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 489 199 62 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 258 242 157 44 7 0 0
ODI 0 48 104 119 113 39 13 0
CDI 0 17 50 177 258 220 98 0
VCDI 0 15 15 172 427 6497 11054 5931
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3525 3009 125 0 0 0 0
OW 0 117 148 119 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 70 356 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 11 180 283 30 9 0
CDI 0 18 6 93 415 172 101 10
VCDI 0 3 1 48 331 6010 12038 4707
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66 5351 933 93 0 0 0 0
OW 0 409 197 74 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 170 298 432 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 8 423 132 5 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 270 292 98 47 28
VCDI 0 0 0 84 438 8586 12048 1564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66 5265 967 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 363 146 96 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 291 289 308 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 34 452 113 7 1 0
CDI 0 2 0 327 257 108 31 23
VCDI 0 0 0 97 486 8574 12064 1569

Date: 2016-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 239 4883 971 69 0 0 0 0
OW 1 503 179 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 532 474 255 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 90 378 109 7 0 0
CDI 0 8 7 256 273 104 69 41
VCDI 0 8 1 94 622 7129 10282 4400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 236 4729 982 59 0 0 0 0
OW 4 402 164 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 701 315 219 39 1 0 0
ODI 0 107 231 325 80 24 0 0
CDI 0 5 29 275 241 139 53 36
VCDI 0 13 1 135 653 7076 10298 4405

Date: 2016-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 5635 1124 237 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 115 326 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 6 415 53 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 211 502 24 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 287 396 30 27
VCDI 0 0 0 2 210 3999 11633 6537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 5080 492 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 324 211 107 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 301 431 97 8 0 0
ODI 0 117 189 293 258 50 0 0
CDI 0 4 53 231 218 181 88 11
VCDI 0 0 0 112 481 4181 11580 6553

Date: 2016-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4675 1126 314 0 0 0 0
OW 0 83 181 478 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 39 441 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 12 121 255 67 7 0
CDI 0 3 0 25 375 425 86 58
VCDI 0 0 0 6 108 3561 11484 7929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4505 815 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 173 284 170 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 186 451 70 18 0 0
ODI 0 34 60 331 272 152 2 0
CDI 0 18 13 286 214 316 122 12
VCDI 0 0 0 56 351 3567 11453 7975

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 4022 957 240 1 0 0 0
OW 0 90 163 316 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 79 394 246 16 0 0
ODI 0 2 15 130 411 73 2 2
CDI 0 0 9 83 190 269 89 53
VCDI 0 0 0 13 143 5196 11362 7411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 3921 803 117 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 232 240 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 139 463 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 39 222 247 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 108 379 264 58 30
VCDI 0 0 0 26 305 5242 11395 7436


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