Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 641 7863 2430 136 1 0 0 0
OW 0 230 171 198 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 246 578 151 26 0 0
ODI 0 57 66 625 1085 123 0 0
CDI 0 229 126 156 1289 680 0 2
VCDI 0 19 13 117 693 4076 7280 16405
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1295 7440 1893 115 1 0 0 0
OW 0 200 173 276 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 161 52 551 119 0 0 0
ODI 0 68 17 312 648 133 0 0
CDI 0 73 10 249 1068 730 2 0
VCDI 0 230 103 201 947 3743 7196 17844
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60 8905 1765 398 6 0 0 0
OW 0 78 36 329 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 23 372 269 7 0 0
ODI 0 114 183 253 354 119 0 0
CDI 0 19 11 166 656 1349 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 360 3450 7145 19339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 643 8586 1492 214 3 0 0 0
OW 0 116 94 283 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 17 307 168 1 0 0
ODI 0 194 88 183 422 99 0 0
CDI 0 46 76 158 438 386 5 0
VCDI 0 13 1 59 615 5755 10731 14590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 643 8627 1539 287 5 0 0 0
OW 0 86 58 257 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 9 276 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 180 95 177 430 124 0 0
CDI 0 49 67 153 449 487 20 0
VCDI 0 4 0 54 602 5630 10716 14590

Date: 2016-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 626 8573 1426 156 0 0 0 0
OW 0 201 156 226 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 45 280 186 2 0 0
ODI 0 60 34 229 381 26 0 0
CDI 0 74 130 163 611 328 3 0
VCDI 0 2 20 202 792 4065 8193 18534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 626 8610 1438 164 2 0 0 0
OW 0 178 145 202 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 44 292 150 5 0 0
ODI 0 56 35 222 402 38 0 0
CDI 0 77 129 125 635 413 3 0
VCDI 0 4 20 251 789 3965 8193 18534

Date: 2016-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 764 7960 1604 245 5 0 0 0
OW 0 76 101 315 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 98 447 161 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 299 646 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 517 843 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 3633 9000 18938
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 764 7736 1538 335 16 0 0 0
OW 0 155 98 235 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 28 245 227 13 0 0
ODI 0 41 13 134 345 84 0 0
CDI 0 2 46 93 413 437 30 0
VCDI 0 18 80 271 398 3974 8982 18938

Date: 2016-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 857 7368 1873 198 1 0 0 0
OW 0 163 148 286 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 50 312 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 47 88 174 303 9 0 0
CDI 0 6 27 286 562 213 3 1
VCDI 0 0 0 26 245 3377 8117 20932
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 857 7192 1792 324 3 0 0 0
OW 0 181 149 180 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 76 200 155 5 0 0
ODI 0 85 20 112 165 47 0 0
CDI 0 42 14 122 311 125 3 7
VCDI 0 31 135 344 546 3422 8117 20926

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 6326 2448 227 0 0 0 0
OW 0 158 190 353 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 37 341 179 0 0 0
ODI 0 45 19 136 270 76 0 1
CDI 0 0 45 255 348 278 4 12
VCDI 0 0 0 21 268 2409 6550 23981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 6297 2427 411 13 0 0 0
OW 0 146 179 210 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 65 240 167 17 0 0
ODI 0 45 4 119 186 40 0 4
CDI 0 16 16 88 165 137 0 61
VCDI 0 1 48 265 496 2569 6554 23929


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